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Efficacy of curtailment announcements as a predictor of lumber supply

Author(s):

Henry Spelter

Year:

2001

Publication type:

Miscellaneous Publication

Primary Station(s):

Forest Products Laboratory

Source:

Forest products journal. Vol. 51, nos. 7/8 (July/Aug. 2001).:p. 44-46.

Description

A practical method for tracking the effect of curtailment announcements on lumber supply is described and tested. Combining announcements of closures and curtailments with mill capacities enables the creation of accurate forward-looking assessments of lumber supply 1 to 2 months into the future. For three American and Canadian lumber- producing regions, the method produced projections of supply that were within 0.5 percent accuracy for a 7-month period encompassing June to December 2000. Announcements of production intentions are an important piece of market intelligence that can help guide assessments of demand-supply in a volatile market environment.

Citation

Spelter, Henry. 2001. Efficacy of curtailment announcements as a predictor of lumber supply. Forest products journal. Vol. 51, nos. 7/8 (July/Aug. 2001).:p. 44-46.

Publication Notes

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  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/5931