Skip to Main Content
Short-term forecasts of insect phenology inform pest managementAuthor(s): Theresa M. Crimmins; Katharine L. Gerst; Diego G. Huerta; R. Lee Marsh; Erin E. Posthumus; Alyssa H. Rosemartin; Jeff Switzer; Jake F. Weltzin; Len Coop; Nicholas Dietschler; Daniel A. Herms; Samita Limbu; R. Talbot Trotter; Mark Whitmore
Source: Annals of the Entomological Society of America
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
Download Publication (12.0 MB)
DescriptionInsect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of 'Pheno Forecast' map products relevant to science and management. The Pheno Forecasts include real-time maps and short-term forecasts of insect pest activity at managementrelevant spatial and temporal resolutions and are based on accumulated temperature thresholds associated with critical life-cycle stages of economically important pests. Pheno Forecasts indicate, for a specified day, the status of the insect's target life-cycle stage in real time across the contiguous United States. The maps are available for 12 pest species including the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire [Coleoptera: Buprestidae]), hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand), and gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera: Erebidae]). Preliminary validation based on in-situ observations for hemlock woolly adelgid egg and nymph stages in 2018 indicated the maps to be ≥93% accurate depending on phenophase. Since their release in early 2018, these maps have been adopted by tree care specialists and foresters across the United States. Using a consultative mode of engagement, USA-NPN staff have continuously sought input and critique of the maps and delivery from end users. Based on feedback received, maps have been expanded and modified to include additional species, improved descriptions of the phenophase event of interest, and e-mail-based notifications to support management decisions.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationCrimmins, Theresa M.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Huerta, Diego G.; Marsh, R. Lee; Posthumus, Erin E.; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Switzer, Jeff; Weltzin, Jake F.; Coop, Len; Dietschler, Nicholas; Herms, Daniel A.; Limbu, Samita; Trotter, R. Talbot, III; Whitmore, Mark. 2020. Short-term forecasts of insect phenology inform pest management. Annals of the Entomological Society of America. 113(2): 139-148. https://doi.org/10.1093/aesa/saz026.
Keywordsforecasting, insect pests, management, phenology
- An exotic pest threat to eastern hemlock: an initiative for management of hemlock woolly adelgid
- Gypsy moth IPM
- Insects intercepted on Solid Wood Packing Materials at United States Ports-of-Entry: 1985-1998
XML: View XML