Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Projecting global and regional outlooks for planted forests under the shared socio-economic pathways

    Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Jaana Korhonen; Prakash Nepal; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage
    Date: 2020
    Source: New Forests. 91(4). 20 p.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Forest Products Laboratory
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-020-09789-z
    PDF: Download Publication  (1.0 MB)
    Related Research Highlights

    FPL-2020-98    		Global and Regional Outlooks for Planted Forest Area Based Quadratic Relationships with Per Capita Income

    Description

    There is rising global interest in growing more trees in order to meet growing population, climate change, and wood energy needs. Using recently published data on planted forests by country, we estimated relationships between per capita income and planted forest area that are useful for understanding prospective planted forest area futures through 2100 under various United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-inspired Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Under all SSPs, projections indicate increasing global planted forest area trends for the next three to four decades and declining trends thereafter, commensurate with the quadratic functions employed. Our projections indicate somewhat less total future planted forest area than prior linear forecasts. Compared to 293 million ha (Mha) of planted forests globally in 2015, SSP5 (a vision of a wealthier world) projects the largest increase (to 334 Mha, a 14% gain) by 2055, followed by SSP2 (a continuation of historical socio-economic trends, to 327 Mha, or an 11% gain), and SSP3 (a vision of a poorer world, to 319 Mha, a 9% gain). The projected trends for major world regions differ from global trends, consistent with difering socio-economic development trajectories in those regions. Our projections based on empirical FAO data for the past 25 years, as well as those by other researchers, suggest that achieving the much more ambitious global planted forest targets proposed recently will require exceptional forest land and investment supply shifts.

    Publication Notes

    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Korhonen, Jaana; Nepal, Prakash; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Cubbage, Frederick W. 2020. Projecting global and regional outlooks for planted forests under the shared socio-economic pathways. New Forests. 91(4). 20 p.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    Planted forests, shared socio-economic pathways, forest sector policy, panel data

    Related Search

    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/60157