Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Rachel A. Loehman; Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger
    Date: 2020
    Source: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. 3: Article 3.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (591.0 KB)

    Description

    Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management - those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M. 2020. Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. 3: Article 3.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    HRV, FRV, landscape modeling, ecosystem management, climate change, land management, landscape ecology, historical ecology

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/60659