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North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East


Shubhi Sharma
Robert Andrus
Yves Bergeron
Michal Bogdziewicz
Natalie L. Cleavitt
Benoit Courbaud
Adrian J. Das
Michael Dietze
Timothy J. Fahey
Jerry F. Franklin
Gregory S. Gilbert
Cathryn H. Greenberg
Janneke Hille Ris Lambers
Ines Ibanez
Jill F. Johnstone
Christopher L. Kilner
Johannes M. H. Knops
Walter D. Koenig
Georges Kunstler
Jalene M. LaMontagne
Diana Macias
Emily Moran
Jonathan A. Myers
Robert Parmenter
Ian S. Pearse
Renata Poulton-Kamakura
Miranda D. Redmond
Chantal D. Reid
Kyle C. Rodman
C. Lane Scher
William H. Schlesinger
Michael A. Steele
Nathan L. Stephenson
Jennifer J. Swenson
Margaret Swift
Thomas T. Veblen
Amy V Whipple
Thomas G. Whitham
Andreas P. Wion
Roman Zlotin
James S. Clark



Publication type:

Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Primary Station(s):

Southern Research Station


Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences


Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.


Sharma, Shubhi; Andrus, Robert; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don C.; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie L.; Courbaud, Benoit; Das, Adrian J.; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy J.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Gilbert, Gregory S.; Greenberg, Cathryn H.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill F.; Kilner, Christopher L.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; Koenig, Walter D.; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene M.; Macias, Diana; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan A.; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Ian S.; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Redmond, Miranda D.; Reid, Chantal D.; Rodman, Kyle C.; Scher, C. Lane; Schlesinger, William H.; Steele, Michael A.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas T.; Whipple, Amy V.; Whitham, Thomas G.; Wion, Andreas P.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zlotin, Roman; Clark, James S. 2022. North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 119(3): e2116691118.


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