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Implications of random variation in the Stand Prognosis Model

Author(s):

David A. Hamilton

Year:

1991

Publication type:

Research Note (RN)

Primary Station(s):

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Historical Station(s):

Intermountain Forest Experiment Station

Source:

Research Note INT-394. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station; 1991. 11 p.

Description

Although the Stand Prognosis Model has several stochastic components, features have been included in the model in an attempt to minimize run-to-run variation attributable to these stochastic components. This has led many users to assume that comparisons of management alternatives could be made based on a single run of the model for each alternative. Recent analyses have demonstrated that this assumption may often be incorrect. Several possible solutions are given, and the author recommends that in almost all applications of the Stand Prognosis Model it would be wise to make at least two or three projections for each alternative. The number of replications required for any specific application must be determined by evaluating the tradeoff between the added costs of additional replications and the need for additional precision based on intended uses of model output.

Publication Web Site:
http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_int/int_rn394.html

Citation

Hamilton, David A. 1991. Implications of random variation in the Stand Prognosis Model. Res. Note INT-RN-394. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station; 1991. 11 p.

Cited

Publication Notes

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  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/8963