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    Author(s): John E. Wagner; Thomas P. Holmes
    Date: 1998
    Source: Forest Science. 45(2): 163-170.
    Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication
    PDF: View PDF  (242 KB)


    This paper presents a model for examining the economic value of biotechnological research given time-dependent changes in biotechnology. Previous papers examined this issue assuming a time-neutral change in biotechnology. However, when analyzing the genetic improvements of increasing a tree's resistance to a pathogen, this assumption is untenable. The authors derive analytical expressions for the optimal rotation age given non-constant changes in biotechnology. Their model is then implemented using (1) growth and yield simulations; (2) optimal rotation calculations; and (3) survey data on genetic resistance of slash pine (Pinus elliottii) to fusiform rust. Non-parametric regression models are used to estimate the economic gain functions which, for the cases considered, averaged about 1 percent of forestland value per year.

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    Wagner, John E.; Holmes, Thomas P. 1998. Estimating economic gains for landowners due to time-dependent changes in biotechnology. Forest Science. 45(2): 163-170.

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