Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Louis R. Iverson; M.W. Schwartz; Anantha M. Prasad
    Date: 2004
    Source: Landscape Ecology. 19: 787-799.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Northeastern Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (544.73 KB)


    We used a combination of two models, DISTRIB and SHIFT ,to estimate potential migration of five tree species into suitable habitat due to climate change over the next 100 years. These species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, are Diospyros viginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styracilfua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcate (southern red oak). DISTRIB uses a statistical approach to assess potential suitable habitat under equilibrium of 2 x CO2. SHIFT uses a cellular automata approach to estimate migration and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary, forest density inside and outside of the boundary, and distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, SHIFT creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied target cell will become colonized over 100 years. BY evaluating the probability of colonization within the potential 'new' suitable habitat, we can estimate the proportion of new habitat that might be colonized within a century. This proportion is low (<15%) for all five species, suggesting that there is a serious lag between the potential movement of suitable habitat and the potential for the species to migrate into the new habitat. However, humans could hasten the migration of certain species by physically moving the propagules, especially for certain rare species that are unable to move sufficiently through fragmented landscapes, or even more common species, e.g., beech, that have lost many of their animal dispersers.

    Publication Notes

    • Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
    • Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
    • During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
    • Please contact Sharon Hobrla, if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.


    Iverson, Louis R.; Schwartz, M.W.; Prasad, Anantha M. 2004. Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species. Landscape Ecology. 19: 787-799.


    biodiversity, climate change, Eastern United States, global warming, landscape ecology, plant migration, range shifts

    Related Search

    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page