Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate…
Keywords: climate and environmental models, climate change, distribution breadth, eastern United States, endemic, extinction, prediction uncertainty, regression tree, vulnerability
Source: Ecology. 87(7): 1611-1615.
Climate change is being implicated in changes in forest structure and function--from species range shifts to increased forest mortality to changes in phenology. Based on historical patterns, the potential for change and even the direction of change will likely be species specific and significant .…
Keywords: climate change, eastern United States, RandomForest statistical modeling, trees
Source: In: Proceedings, XIII World Forestry Congress; 2009 October 18-23; Buenos Aires. Argentina.[Place of publication unknown]: World Forestry Congress: 1-10.
Latitudinal shifts in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. It has been hypothesized that some tree species may become extirpated as climate change effects may exceed their migration ability. The goal of this study was to compare tree species…
Keywords: climate change, urban, facilitated migration, assisted migration, eastern United States, forest ecosystems
Source: Forest Ecology and Managment. 259: 1447-1454.
Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types were evaluated for the eastern United States according to five scenarios of future climate change resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). DISTRIB, an empirical model that uses a regression tree analysis…
Keywords: climate change, species richness, forest, types, GIS, statistical model, eastern United States
Source: Ecosystems. 4: 186-199.
We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission…
Keywords: climate change, eastern United States, tree species distributions, composition changes, species shifts, random forests, regression tree analysis, bagging
Source: Forest Ecology and Management. 254: 390-406.
We use a regression tree ensemble method to assess current species-environment relationships as well as model potential suitable habitat under a variety of global climate change scenarios.
Keywords: regression tree, random forest, climate change, eastern United States, tree species distribution, migration
Source: In: Proceedings of the international workshop on forest landscape modeling: 2006 June 20-24; Beijing, China. [Publisher name unknown]: [Place of publication unknown]. Abstract.
Climate change will likely cause impacts that are species specific and significant; modeling is critical to better understand potential changes in suitable habitat. We use empirical, abundance-based habitat models utilizing decision tree-based ensemble methods to explore potential changes of 134…
Keywords: climate change, randomforest, species distribution modeling, eastern United States, trees
Source: In: Azevedo, Joao Carlos; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, Jose; Pinto, Maria Alice, eds. Forest landscapes and global change-new frontiers in management, conservation and restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference; 2010 September 21-27; Bragança, Portugal: 135-140.
Fine-scale soil (SSURGO) data were processed at the county level for 37 states within the eastern United States, initially for use as predictor variables in a species distribution model called DISTRIB II. Values from county polygon files converted into a continuous 30-m raster grid were aggregated…
Keywords: habitat suitability, raster aggregation, Soil Data Viewer, geographic information system, eastern United States
Source: Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-122. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 70 p.
We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate,…
Keywords: climate change, eastern United States, randomForest, statistical modeling, migration, trees, birds, DISTRIB, SHIFT, ModFacs
Source: Ecosystems. 14: 1005-1020.
Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy…
Keywords: cell-based simulation model, convolution, eastern United States, fast fourier transforms, long-distance dispersal, oak forest types, range-limit dynamics, tree species migration
Source: Global Change Biology. 19: 2196-2208.