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FPL-PELPS : a price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling, supplement to PELPS III, version 1.1.

This report provides documentation and user information for FPL-PELPS, a personal computer price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Originally developed to model the North American pulp and paper industry, FPL-PELPS follows its predecessors in allowing the modeling of any appropriate sector to predict consumption, production and capacity by...

https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/search?keywords=%22forest%20products%22&%3Bamp%3Bpage=3&%3Bf%5B0%5D=author_facet%3A%22Harrington%2C%20Timothy%22&f%5B0%5D=author_facet%3A%22Downes%2C%20Cara%20%28Meghan%29%22&f%5B1%5D=author_facet%3A%22McCaffrey%2C%20Sarah%20M.%22&f%5B2%5D=author_facet%3A%22Spelter%2C%20Henry%22&f%5B3%5D=author_facet%3A%22Turner%2C%20Jeffery%22&f%5B4%5D=author_facet%3A%22Kim%2C%20John%22&f%5B5%5D=author_facet%3A%22Verrill%2C%20Steve%22&f%5B6%5D=author_facet%3A%22Sieg%2C%20Carolyn%22

Author(s):

Patricia K. Lebow; Henry Spelter; Peter J. Ince

Year:

2003

Keywords:

Economic model, linear programming, spatial equilibrium, international trade, price, demand, supply, capacity, technology, recycling, industry, pulp and paper, solid wood.

Source:

Res. Pap. FPL-RP-614. Madison, WI : U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, 2003. 32 pages.

Northeast economic data and retrieval system

To help foster rural economic development in 18 Northeastern states, an economic information system developed at the USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory was used to facilitate access to reference data on forest products industry activities. The Census and Survey of Manufactures were used as sources for information. This report explains the computerized...

Author(s):

Henry Spelter; Sujata Ghosh

Year:

1993

Keywords:

Data base, census of manufactures, forest industry

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL-GTR-78. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 7 p.

U.S. forest products module : a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) is a partial market equilibrium model of the U.S. forest sector that operates within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) to provide long-range timber market projections in relation to global economic scenarios. USFPM was designed specifically for the 2010 RPA forest assessment, but it is being used also in other applications...

Author(s):

Peter J. Ince; Andrew D. Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog; Henry N. Spelter; David N. Wear

Year:

2011

Keywords:

Forest products model, wood energy, forest products, economic aspects, economic analysis, timber trade, stumpage value, timber markets, forest products trade, market trends, economic projections

Source:

Research paper FPL-RP-662. Madison, WI : U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 61 p.

Material variability and repetitive member allowable property adjustments in forest products engineering

It has been argued that repetitive member allowable property adjustments should be larger for high-variability material than for low-variability material. We report analytic calculations and simulations that suggest that the order of such adjustments should be reversed. That is, given the manner in which allowable properties are currently calculated, as the coefficient...

Author(s):

Steve Verrill; David Kretschmann

Year:

2008

Keywords:

Assembly, reliability, redundancy, allowable property

Source:

Research Paper FPL-RP-649. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture,Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 36 pages.

The decline and fall of Type II error rates

For general linear models with normally distributed random errors, the probability of a Type II error decreases exponentially as a function of sample size. This potentially rapid decline reemphasizes the importance of performing power calculations.

Author(s):

Steve Verrill; Mark Durst

Year:

2005

Keywords:

Power, sample size, linear models, experimental design, noncentral F, normal tail, Mills’ ratio, asymptotic relative efficiency, Hodges-Lehmann efficiency, Pitman efficiency, minimum detectable difference

Source:

Research Paper FPL-RP-628. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 11 p.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

Author(s):

Steve Verrill

Year:

2003

Keywords:

Noncentral T, noise to signal ratio, variability, coefficient of variation, confidence bounds, normal, lognormal

Source:

Res. Pap. FPL-RP-609. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory: 13 pages

FORDAT : an information retrieval system for forest economic data

Time series data frequently used in Forest Service studies of wood products consumption have been stored in a data retrieval system on the computer of the University of Wisconsin. The data cover activity in wood processing from forest to end use. Prices and costs at succeeding stages, historical usage, production rates, and other relevant data to wood use analysis were...

Author(s):

Henry M. Spelter

Year:

1981

Keywords:

Wood products, forest products, information processing, information retrieval, economic analysis, production, prices, costs, consumption, databases, time series, wood utilization, forest products industries, information services

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL-33. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 15 p.

Capacity, production, and manufacturing of woodbased panels in North America

This report is an informational report about four wood-based panel industries: particleboard, oriented strandboard, medium density fiberboard, and Southern Pine plywood. Items highlighted are trends in manufacturing and new plant costs, industry manufacturing capacity, and location. Recent data show the greatest amount of growth taking place in the oriented strandboard...

Author(s):

Henry Spelter

Year:

1994

Keywords:

Particleboard, oriented strandboard, plywood, capacity, cost, prices

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL–GTR–82. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 17 p.

VENVAL : a plywood mill cost accounting program

This report documents a package of computer programs called VENVAL. These programs prepare plywood mill data for a linear programming (LP) model that, in turn, calculates the optimum mix of products to make, given a set of technologies and market prices. (The software to solve a linear program is not provided and must be obtained separately.) Linear programming finds...

Author(s):

Henry Spelter

Year:

1991

Keywords:

Plywood, cost accounting, linear programming, mill scheduling

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL-GTR-68. Madison WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 25 pages.

Globalization and structural change in the U.S. forest sector: an evolving context for sustainable forest management

This report examines economic implications for sustainable forest management of globalization and related structural changes in the forest sector of the United States. Globalization has accelerated structural change in the U.S. forest sector, favored survival of larger and more capital-intensive enterprises, and altered historical patterns of resource use.

Author(s):

Peter Ince; Albert Schuler; Henry Spelter; William Luppold

Year:

2007

Keywords:

Globalization, structural change, forest sector, sustainability, sustainable forestry, economic aspects, forest management, forestry, RPA assessment

Source:

General Technical Report FPL-GTR-170. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 62 pages

Repetitive member factors for the allowable properties of wood products

We identify confusion in the literature about the definition and calculation of repetitive member factors. This confusion casts some doubt on the validity of the 1.15 repetitive member factor permitted in ASTM D 245 and ASTM D 1990.

Author(s):

Steve Verrill; David Kretschmann

Year:

2010

Keywords:

repetitive members, assembly, reliability, redundancy, load sharing, composite action, residual capacity, ASTM standards

Source:

Research paper FPL ; RP-657

Status and Trends for the U.S. Forest Products Sector: A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Forest products sector products and income help sustain the social, economic, and ecological benefits of forestry in the United States. Solidwood products consumption increased with population between 1965 and 2008 and varied with housing starts. Lumber's share declined from 83% to 70%, and structural panels' share increased from 9% to 17%. Paper and...

Author(s):

Kenneth E. Skog; David B. McKeever; Peter J. Ince; James L. Howard; Henry N. Spelter; Albert T. Schuler

Year:

2012

Keywords:

forest sector, housing, lumber, panels, paper, pulp, consumption, production, trade, wood requirements, wood energy

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL-GTR-207. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, 35 p.

Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

Author(s):

Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

Year:

2007

Keywords:

Coefficient of variation, signal to noise ratio, risk to return ratio, one-step Newton estimators, Newton's method, n-consistent estimators, efficient likelihood estimators, Cramer conditions, quadratic mean differentiability, likelihood ratio test, Wald test, Rao test, asymptotics, confidence internals, Newton-Raphson method

Source:

Research Paper FPL-RP-638. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 57 pages

Estimating the board foot to cubic foot ratio

Certain issues in recent softwood lumber trade negotiations have centered on the method for converting estimates of timber volumes reported in cubic meters to board feet. Such conversions depend on many factors; three of the most important of these are log length, diameter, and taper. Average log diameters vary by region and have declined in the western United States...

Author(s):

Steve P. Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; Henry N. Spelter

Year:

2004

Keywords:

Scribner scaling, diameter, length, taper, truncated cone, smoothing, calibration

Source:

Res. Pap. FPL-RP-616. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory: 18 pages

Conversion of board foot scaled logs to cubic meters in Washington State, 1970–1998

The conversion factor generally used to convert logs measured in board feet to cubic meters has traditionally been set at 4.53. Because of diminishing old growth, large diameter trees, the average conversion factor has risen, as illustrated in this analysis of Washington state sawmill data over the period 1970?1998. Conversion factors for coastal and interior...

Author(s):

Henry Spelter

Year:

2002

Keywords:

Softwood, sawlogs, metric conversion factors, average diameters

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL-GTR-131. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 6 p.

Plywood manufacturing cost trends, excluding wood, in Western U.S. mills: 1975-1988

Plywood manufacturing costs have increased over the years with inflation. In recent years, new technologies that improve productivity and reduce costs have become available. Cost data published by the American Plywood Association (APA) show moderating rates of increase by 1983. New data from a sample of western U.S. mills show that nonwood manufacturing costs have...

Author(s):

Henry Spelter

Year:

1989

Keywords:

Plywood manufacturing, nonwood costs, cost trends

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL-GTR-64. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory; 1989: 12 pages

PLYMAP : a computer simulation model of the rotary peeled softwood plywood manufacturing process

This report documents a simulation model of the plywood manufacturing process. Its purpose is to enable a user to make quick estimates of the economic impact of a particular process change within a mill. The program was designed to simulate the processing of plywood within a relatively simplified mill design. Within that limitation, however, it allows a wide range of...

Author(s):

Henry Spelter

Year:

1990

Keywords:

Process simulation, modeling, plywood

Source:

Gen. Tech. Rep, FPL-GTR-65. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 54 p.

JMFA2—a graphically interactive Java program that fits microfibril angle X-ray diffraction data

X-ray diffraction techniques have the potential to decrease the time required to determine microfibril angles dramatically. In this paper, we discuss the latest version of a curve-fitting toll that permits us to reduce the time required to evaluate MFA X-ray diffraction patterns. Further, because this tool reflects the underlying physics more accurately than existing...

Author(s):

Steve P. Verrill; David E. Kretschmann; Victoria L. Herian

Year:

2006

Keywords:

Microfibril angle, X-ray diffraction, Java, interactive graphics, mechanical properties of wood, forest monitoring, wood quality, computer simulation

Source:

Research Paper FPL-RP-635. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 69 pages

Statistical framework for comparing lumber sorting procedures

Author(s):

Steve V. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans

Year:

2009

Keywords:

Lumber, grading, mathematical models, computer simulation, lumber grading, correlation estimation, comparing sorting procedures, classification

Source:

Research Paper FPL-RP-651

An Evaluation of a Proposed Revision of the ASTM D 1990 Grouping Procedure

Lum, Taylor, and Zidek have proposed a revised procedure for wood species grouping in ASTM standard D 1990. We applaud the authors? recognition of the importance of considering a strength distribution?s variability as well as its fifth percentile. However, we have concerns about their proposed method of incorporating this information into a standard. We detail these...

Author(s):

Steve P Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

Year:

2013

Keywords:

Reliability, modulus of rupture, modulus of elasticity, bivariate Gaussian−Weibull, pseudo-truncated Weibull, Weibull

Source:

USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, Research Paper, FPL-RP-671, 2013. 36 p.

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FPL-PELPS : a price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling, supplement to PELPS III, version 1.1.

Northeast economic data and retrieval system

U.S. forest products module : a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Material variability and repetitive member allowable property adjustments in forest products engineering

The decline and fall of Type II error rates

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

FORDAT : an information retrieval system for forest economic data

Capacity, production, and manufacturing of woodbased panels in North America

VENVAL : a plywood mill cost accounting program

Globalization and structural change in the U.S. forest sector: an evolving context for sustainable forest management

Repetitive member factors for the allowable properties of wood products

Status and Trends for the U.S. Forest Products Sector: A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

Estimating the board foot to cubic foot ratio

Conversion of board foot scaled logs to cubic meters in Washington State, 1970–1998

Plywood manufacturing cost trends, excluding wood, in Western U.S. mills: 1975-1988

PLYMAP : a computer simulation model of the rotary peeled softwood plywood manufacturing process

JMFA2—a graphically interactive Java program that fits microfibril angle X-ray diffraction data

Statistical framework for comparing lumber sorting procedures

An Evaluation of a Proposed Revision of the ASTM D 1990 Grouping Procedure

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