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Global climate change impacts on forests and marketsAuthor(s): Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole
Source: Environmental Research Letters. 11(3): 035011-.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
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DescriptionThis paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.
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CitationTian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson. 2016.Global climate change impacts on forests and markets. Environmental Research Letters. 11(3): 035011-.
KeywordsClimate change, dynamic optimization, markets.
- Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model
- Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.
- Developing detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) narratives for the Global Forest Sector
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