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Global climate change impacts on forests and markets


Xiaohui Tian
Brent Sohngen
Sara Ohrel
Jefferson Cole



Publication type:

Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Primary Station(s):

Pacific Northwest Research Station


Environmental Research Letters. 11(3): 035011-.


This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.


Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson. 2016.Global climate change impacts on forests and markets. Environmental Research Letters. 11(3): 035011-.


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