Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center
The Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC) is administered by the Pacific Northwest Research Station, and it covers the western half of the United States. WWETAC collaborates with the Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and the Pacific Southwest Research Station, Regions 1-6 and 10, as well as with universities and other partners across the West.

Overview
Ecosystems of the western United States face a variety of threats, including drought, insect and disease outbreaks, invasive species, and uncharacteristically large and severe wildfires.
At the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC), we work with our partners in research and land management to:
- Monitor and assess threats to western lands
- Synthesize the latest understanding of the causes and implications of environmental threats
- Develop novel research and decision-support tools to help agencies, communities, and managers reduce negative effects and sustain productive ecosystems

Founded in 2005 along with the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, WWETAC is a unit of the USDA Forest Service. WWETAC serves all seven Forest Service regions (1-6 and 10) in the western United States.
Our activities are organized into focus areas:
Mission and Objectives
WWETAC’s mission is to generate and integrate knowledge to provide credible prediction, early detection, and quantitative assessment of environmental threats to forests and rangelands in the western United States. Our objectives are to:
- Assess risks, uncertainties, and potential effects of environmental stresses on western ecological conditions and socioeconomic values
- Evaluate the effects and consequences of multiple, interacting stressors on western forest and rangeland health
- Provide science-based decision-support tools for policy formulation and land management in the western United States
- Provide land managers with credible predictions of potential severe disturbances in the West with sufficient warning to take preventive actions

Defoliator Modeling: Tracking Outbreaks Through Time: Outbreaks of defoliator insects (insects that feed on the needles and leaves of plants) play a major role in shaping Pacific coastal temperate rainforests. This fact sheet outlines how researchers are using historical data and an ensemble machine learning model to better understand the factors influencing outbreaks of two major defoliator species in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska, and how climate change may be changing those factors.

Subalpine Fir: A species and Ecosystem Assessment: Subalpine forests are an important ecological and cultural resource, but recently there have been concerning declines in some major subalpine species. Using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, this project used subalpine fir population trends to examine the condition of subalpine ecosystems across the western United States and determined possible drivers of decline. Learn more in this fact sheet.

Wildfire Risk and Fuel Management
Wildfire is a natural process in western U.S. forests and rangelands. However, high-severity wildfire is a major threat to western ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. High-severity wildfires increase the likelihood of other ecological impacts, including flooding, erosion, and reduction in water quality, as well as loss of key wildlife habitat, recreation resources, and other ecological and economic values.
WWETAC conducts wildfire modeling and prioritizes research guiding pre-fire planning and post-fire management to maintain healthy and product forests and rangelands. Researchers are gathering information on wildfire behavior, drivers of megafires, and historical fire regimes on western landscapes. This information is then used to determine how management may need to adapt to changing conditions.
Measuring Long-Term Seedling Survival

Evaluation of plausible future community wildfire disasters in western Oregon and Washington: This project used simulated wildfire perimeters to measure plausible community wildfire exposure and found that nearly 50 percent of western Oregon and Washington communities are vulnerable to future disasters.
Simulating the impacts of climate change on west-side fire regimes: This project simulates wildfire behavior in western Oregon and Washington under a future climate change scenario to provide insight into the plausible range of changes in fire frequency, size, and intensity caused by climate change.

Re-evaluating historical fire regimes in west-side forests of the Pacific Northwest: This project is developing quantitative knowledge about west-side fire history to inform managers and policy makers on adaptation to future changes in fire activity and climate.
Collaborative Postfire Research and Monitoring: This postfire research and monitoring collaboration facilitates shared stewardship by increasing interagency awareness of efforts by various state and federal natural resources agencies to assess and learn from the September 2020 fires in Oregon.

SoCal EcoServe: The Southern California Ecosystem Services tool (SoCal EcoServe) allows users to map, quantify, and apply monetary value to ecological benefits derived from the chaparral ecosystems of the Angeles, Cleveland, Los Padres, and San Bernardino National Forests of southern California.
MC2: The MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulates ecosystem processes and their response to climate change. It is often used to study the long-term response of vegetation to climate change far into the future at regional and global scales, and is used to craft management plans for multiple forests in the West.
FSim: FSim is a high-resolution wildfire simulation model that allowing WWETAC researchers to examine how future fire regimes might change with the impacts of climate change by simulate fire behavior and spread.
ArcFuels: WWETAC scientists developed ArcFuels, a quantitative wildfire risk assessment tool built to streamline fuel management planning. The application uses a toolbar in ArcMap that interfaces with stand-to-landscape-level forest growth simulations (i.e., Forest Vegetation Simulator) and a fire behavior model (i.e., FlamMap) to aid fuel treatment planning, wildfire behavior modeling, and wildfire risk assessments.
Northwest Forest Threat Maps: Northwest Forest Threats is an interactive map and planning tool covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming. The map shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific ecosystem threat or combination of threats, including development, wildfire, insects, disease, or a combination thereof.

Measuring Long-Term Seedling Survival: Wildfires are a part of the Western landscape, but monitoring and management activities are still important following a fire. This fact sheet offers a summary of a project examining long-term conifer recovery in postburn areas of Northern California.

Postfire Planting in Colorado: Forests naturally go through cycles of disturbance and regrowth, but sometimes these disturbances are so severe that a forest struggles to recover on its own. In other instances, management priorities may call for an area to be reforested more quickly than would occur naturally. In either case, land managers may choose to replant an area themselves. This fact sheet provides a summary of a study examining what conditions affect the success of conifer seedlings planted after fires in Colorado.

Evaluating Spruce-Fir Resilience: Changing conditions, especially growing wildfire extent and frequency, may impact forests throughout the Western U.S. This fact sheet offers a summary of a study examining potential future changes in subalpine spruce-fir ecosystems throughout the Western U.S.

The Future of Fires with FSim: Climate change will bring hotter and drier conditions and longer fire seasons. Understanding how fire regimes may change in the future is important for present-day management decisions. Learn how WWETAC researchers are using FSim to explore how future fire regimes might be impacted by climate change.

Feeding the Fire: Invasive Grass and Fire Spread Modeling: While forests are relatively resistant to non-native grass invasion, patches within forests with open canopies or sparse tree cover can be affected. This invasion may lead to changes in fire behavior on the landscape. Learn more about how researchers used a simulations to examine how non-native grass invasion might alter fire behavior in this fact sheet.
Selected WWETAC Wildfire Publications
Publications
- Daniel L. Perret, David M. Bell, Harold S. J. Zald. 2025. Reducing fire severity and extent bolsters subalpine forest resilience to global change through key demographic pathways
- Laura A. E. Marshall, Paula J. Fornwalt, Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Kyle C. Rodman, Teresa B. Chapman, Catherine A. Schloegel, Jens T. Stevens. 2024. What influences planted tree seedling survival in burned Colorado montane forests?
- Claire M. Tortorelli, Derek J.N. Young, Matthew J. Reilly, Ramona J. Butz, Hugh D. Safford, Nina E. Venuti, Kevin R. Welch, Andrew M. Latimer. 2024. Post-fire resurveys reveal predictability of long-term conifer recruitment in severely burned California dry forests
- Matthew J. Reilly, Steven P. Norman, Joseph J. O'Brien, E. Louise. Loudermilk. 2022. Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion
- Zachary J. Robbins, E. Louise Loudermilk, Matthew J. Reilly, Joseph J. O'Brien, Kate Jones, Christopher T. Gerstle, Robert M. Scheller. 2022. Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape
- Matthew J. Reilly, Aaron Zuspan, Joshua S. Halofsky, Crystal Raymond, Andy McEvoy, Alex W. Dye, Daniel C. Donato, John B. Kim, Brian E. Potter, Nathan Walker, Raymond J. Davis, Christopher J. Dunn, David M. Bell, Matthew J. Gregory, James D. Johnston, Brian J. Harvey, Jessica E. Halofsky, Becky K. Kerns. 2022. Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA
- Matthew J. Reilly, Jessica E. Halofsky, Meg A. Krawchuk, Daniel C. Donato, Paul F. Hessburg, James D. Johnston, Andrew G. Merschel, Mark E. Swanson, Joshua S. Halofsky, Thomas A. Spies. 2021. Fire ecology and management in Pacific Northwest forests
- James M. Vose, David L. Peterson, Christopher J. Fettig, Jessica E. Halofsky, J. Kevin. Hiers, Robert E. Keane, Rachel Loehman, Michael C. Stambaugh. 2021. Fire and forests in the 21st Century: Managing resilience under changing climates and fire regimes in USA forests
- Andy McEvoy, Becky K. Kerns, John B. Kim. 2021. Hazards of risk: Identifying plausible community wildfire disasters in low-frequency fire regimes
Effective beginning 5/30/2025
This website, and all linked websites under the control of the agency, is under review and content may change.

Climate Change
Climate change is a growing threat to western ecosystems and society. Climate change is expected to be a "threat multiplier" in that it is likely to exacerbate many existing threats to western forests and rangelands, including drought, wildfire, insect outbreaks, and invasive plants.
One of WWETAC's greatest challenges and highest priorities is translating projected climatic conditions into potential effects on western ecosystems, natural resource availability, and the societies dependent on them.
WWETAC staff have been systematically reviewing the environmental and socioeconomic conditions in Western states to understand how they might be negatively impacted by potential climatic changes. These vulnerability assessments can be comprehensive or resource specific and include adaptation strategies and tactics for land managers and community planners to effectively prepare for future conditions.

Map of regions examined through Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments by the Adaptation Partners.
Pacific Southwest Region
Intermountain Region
Pacific Northwest Region
- Columbia River Gorge, Mount Hood & Willamette National Forests
- Blue Mountains
- Oregon Coast
- South-central Oregon
- Southwest Oregon
- North Cascades
- Olympic Peninsula
- Southwest Washington
Northern Region
Southwestern Region
To view more climate change vulnerability assessments, see Adaptation Partners’ external website or the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments Across the Nation storymap.

Carbon model assessments and improvements: The purpose of this project is to assist managers and policymakers in selecting and running projection models to assess the impact of alternative management approaches on ecosystem and harvested wood products carbon stocks and emissions.
Simulating the impacts of climate change on west-side fire regimes: This project simulates wildfire behavior in western Oregon and Washington under a future climate change scenario to provide insight into the plausible range of changes in fire frequency, size, and intensity caused by climate change.

Experimental Network for Assisted Migration and Establishment Silviculture (ENAMES): In the face of a changing climate, historic forest ecosystems may not do as well as they once did in specific habitats, especially when they are regenerating after disturbances. This ongoing project seeks to evaluate novel reforestation practices to ensure that thriving forests persist into the future.

PhenoMap: PhenoMap shows the "greenness" of vegetation across the conterminous United States, providing a near real-time assessment of land surface phenology using satellite imagery updated weekly.
MC2: The MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulates ecosystem processes and their response to climate change. It is often used to study the long-term response of vegetation to climate change far into the future at regional and global scales, and is used to craft management plans for multiple forests in the West.
TACCIMO: The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a searchable database of scientific journals and published Forest Service environmental impact analyses related to climate and climate effects. It stores climate research and land management applications and is continually updated to be the best source of Forest Service data on climate impacts and more.

WaSSI: The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model is a tool that can be used to simulate the effects of climate, land use, land cover, and water use on water availability. The model uses climate outputs from 16 general circulation models (GCMs) under high and low warming scenarios and associated vegetation dynamics simulated with the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model as inputs. The interactive dashboard allows you to explore the water yield projections from 2008 through 2099 for HUC8 subbasins.

MC2: Dynamic Global Vegetation Model
The MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulates ecosystem processes and their response to climate change. It has been used in a wide range of climate model and assessment applications, from fire severity to the economics of timber harvest. This fact sheet offers a brief summary of the model itself along with a sample of the range of work MC2 has been used in.

WWETAC Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments
A climate change vulnerability assessment, or CCVA, is a report that synthesizes and evaluates a wide range of scientific information, including model projections and scientific papers, on the effects climate change might have on a specific area. This fact sheet summarizes the main parts and uses of a CCVA, and highlights the role WWETAC plays in producing many of the assessments for the Western U.S. It also includes an up-to-date list of WWETAC's available assessment.
Selected WWETAC Climate Change Publications
Publications
- Anna T. Maher, Holly R. Prendeville, Jessica E. Halofsky, Mary M. Rowland, Kirk W. Davies, Chad S. Boyd. 2025. Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for land managers on Northwest US rangelands
- Henrique F. Duarte, John Kim, Ge Sun, Steven G. McNulty, Jingfeng Xiao. 2024. Climate and vegetation change impacts on future conterminous United States water yield
- Ellynne Kutschera, John B. Kim, G. Stephen Pitts, Ray Drapek. 2023. “What’s past is prologue”: Vegetation model calibration with and without future climate
- Alla Golub, Brent Sohngen, Yongyang Cai, John Kim, Thomas Hertel. 2022. Costs of forest carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change impacts
- John Kim, Yueyang Jiang, Linnia Hawkins, Christopher J. Still. 2022. A comparison of multiple statistically downscaled climate change datasets for the conterminous USA
- Crystal Raymond, Harriet Morgan, David L. Peterson, Jessica Halofsky. 2022. A climate resilience guide for small forest landowners in Western Washington
- Jessica E. Halofsky, David L. Peterson, Rebecca A. Gravenmier. 2022. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in southwest Oregon
- Paul Hessburg, Susan Charnley, Andrew Gray, Thomas Spies, David Peterson, Rebecca Flitcroft, Kendra Wendel, Jessica Halofsky, Eric White, John Marshall. 2021. Climate and wildfire adaptation of inland Northwest US forests
- Jessica E. Halofsky. 2021. Climate change effects in the Sierra Nevada

Invasive Species
Plants and animals that move or are introduced to a new location can threaten ecosystems throughout the western United States. At times, these introductions pose no threat, but sometimes non-native species spread and multiply in their new habitats, invading and displacing native species and altering ecosystem structure and function. Invasive species can also reduce the viability of threatened or endangered native species, reduce water availability to native species, change nutrient dynamics and balance, and limit the ability of forests to sequester carbon. These effects can have negative repercussions on forest and rangeland productivity, recreation resources, and overall ecosystem integrity. WWETAC prioritizes research at the forefront of invasive species outbreaks and develops information and tools to help managers effectively respond to these novel threats.

Feeding the Fire: Invasive Grass and Fire Spread Modeling: While forests are relatively resistant to non-native grass invasion, patches within forests with open canopies or sparse tree cover can be affected. This invasion may lead to changes in fire behavior on the landscape. Learn more about how researchers used a simulations to examine how non-native grass invasion might alter fire behavior in this fact sheet.

Improving Restoration Outcomes and Forest Resilience: Timber harvests and thinning may inadvertently create conditions that are beneficial for invasive plants. Treating invasive plants before other forest management activities could be an effective method for minimizing their spread. This project seeks to 1) determine if applying herbicides before harvest or thinning and re-seeding with desired species will limit postharvest invasion, and 2) explore the role that disturbance intensity and roadsides play in invasive plant establishment.

Risk assessment tool for invasive plant spread in the northern Rocky Mountains: The Forest Service Northern Region is working with the Spatial Analysis Lab at the University of Montana to develop a decision-support tool that combines invasion ecology, plant and population biology, and resource management. This tool will offer a standard method for land managers to assess the risk of invasive plant species introduction and spread through fuels treatment and other land management activities.

Seed Zone Mapper: The Seed Zone WebMap allows users to acquire data on seed zones that is useful in gene conservation, native plant restoration, and plant material development.
Northwest Forest Threat Maps: NW Threat Maps is an interactive map covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming and shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific threat or combination of threats.
Selected WWETAC Invasive Species Publications
- Ty C. Nietupski, John B. Kim, Claire M. Tortorelli, Rebecca Lemons, Becky K. Kerns. 2024. Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions
- Emily J. Fusco, Evelyn M. Beaury, Bethany A. Bradley, Michelle Cox, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Adam L. Mahood, R. Chelsea Nagy, Ty Nietupski, Jessica E. Halofsky. 2023. The invasive plant data landscape: a synthesis of spatial data and applications for research and management in the United States
- Claire M. Tortorelli, John B. Kim, Nicole M. Vaillant, Karin Riley, Alex Dye, Ty C. Nietupski, Kevin C. Vogler, Rebecca Lemons, Michelle Day, Meg A. Krawchuk, Becky K. Kerns. 2023. Feeding the fire: Annual grass invasion facilitates modeled fire spread across Inland Northwest forest‐mosaic landscapes
- Cynthia R. Hartway, Jacqueline P. Ott, Nancy E. Grulke. 2022. Plant life span and persistence of soil seedbanks predict the emergence of herbicide resistance in noxious weeds

Insects & Disease
Many insects and diseases are native to the western U.S. However, they can still cause considerable damage, especially when natural disturbance cycles are amplified by magnifying factors like drought. In these circumstances, they can cause widescale damage and loss to forest and rangelands.
Understanding the mechanisms behind native insect outbreaks and disease spread is important for managing these threats. WWETAC investigates native insects and pathogens that have reached uncharacteristic or harmful levels to help land managers determine the best way to respond.

Remote Sensing for Insect and Disease Assessment
Remote sensing is a rapidly growing field, with significant potential benefits for forest disturbance assessment. This fact sheet gives a brief summary of remote sensing uses and techniques for assessing forest insects and disease and provides additional resources to learn more.

Defoliator Modeling: Tracking Outbreaks Through Time
Outbreaks of defoliator insects (insects that feed on the needles and leaves of plants) play a major role in shaping Pacific coastal temperate rainforests. This fact sheet outlines how researchers are using historical data and an ensemble machine learning model to better understand the factors influencing outbreaks of two major defoliator species in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska, and how climate change may be changing those factors.

Plots, Planes, and Pixels: This project is building a modeling framework for integrating forest inventory data, aerial surveys, and satellite remote sensing information to provide reliable, timely, and detailed estimates of forest mortality events and associated ecological impacts.
Northwest Forest Threat Maps: NW Threat Maps is an interactive map covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming and shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific threat or combination of threats.
Selected WWETAC Insect & Disease Publications
- Jeffrey A. Hicke, Benjamin C. Bright, Ryan P. Hanavan, Andrew T. Hudak, Arjan J.H. Meddens, Abhinav Shrestha, Amanda T. Stahl. 2024. Remote sensing of forest insect and disease outbreaks in the western United States: Tree, stand, and landscape responses and technologies and methods for detection and attribution
- Megan M. Seeley, Roberta E. Martin, Christian Giardina, Blaine Luiz, Kainana Francisco, Zachary Cook, Marc A. Hughes, Gregory P. Asner. 2023. Leaf spectroscopy of resistance to Ceratocystis wilt of ‘Ōhi’a
- Brent W. Oblinger, Benjamin C. Bright, Ryan P. Hanavan, Mike Simpson, Andrew T. Hudak, Bruce D. Cook, Lawrence A. Corp. 2022. Identifying conifer mortality induced by Armillaria root disease using airborne lidar and orthoimagery in south central Oregon
- Michael J. Koontz, Andrew M. Latimer, Leif A. Mortenson, Christopher J. Fettig, Malcolm P. North. 2021. Cross-scale interaction of host tree size and climatic water deficit governs bark beetle-induced tree mortality

Drought in the West
Drought is a natural part of western lands. Extreme or prolonged drought can have significant effects on forests and grasslands. Drought interacts with other disturbances in complex ways like changing fire behavior, altering forest insect outbreak patterns, or opening opportunities for invasive species to spread.
WWETAC investigates how drought affects western forests and grasslands, provides tools to assist with management, and provides timely drought status updates to help land managers prepare for drought effects.
These regular drought status updates are produced using the most recent data and cover a seasonal range of outlooks, including current conditions, seasonal drought outlooks, and severe fire potential. It is broken down by Forest Service region.

Drought Status Update - July 2025
This update covers conditions for July 2025 and projections through September 2025.

Drought Status Update - April 2025
This update covers conditions for April 2025, and projections through July 2025.

This fact sheet offers a general overview of the various types of drought, their effects, and some of the factors that contribute to drought in the West. It offers a good starting point for those who are less familiar with drought and drought effects, or want to learn more about how drought is monitored in the U.S.

Drought Interaction - Wildfire
This fact sheet summarizes the interactions between drought and wildfire on western U.S. forests and rangelands, including drying fuels, reducing environmental moisture, and stressing water infrastructure.

This fact sheet offers a summary of the interaction between drought and forest insects in the western U.S.

Drought Interaction - Invasive Species
This fact sheet provides a summary of the interaction between drought and invasive plants on forest and rangeland health in the western U.S. It describes invasive species effects overall and highlights a few particularly noteworthy species.

Drought Maps and Outlooks Guide
This fact sheet gives an introduction to some of the major sources of drought information and other data that is related to drought and helps break down how they are presented. It covers the U.S. Drought Monitor weekly conditions map, the NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook map, various sources of historical data, snowpack data, and significant fire potential outlooks.
Selected WWETAC Drought Publications
- Yoonji Kim, Nancy Grulke, Andrew Merschel, Kellie Uyeda. 2022. Assessing role of drought indices in anticipating pine decline in the Sierra Nevada, CA
- Scott L Stephens, Brandon M Collins, Christopher J Fettig, Mark A Finney, Chad M Hoffman, Eric E Knapp, Malcolm P North, Hugh Safford, Rebecca B Wayman. 2018. Drought, tree mortality, and wildfire in forests adapted to frequent fire
- Haiganoush K. Preisler, Nancy E. Grulke, Zachary Heath, Sheri L. Smith. 2017. Analysis and out-year forecast of beetle, borer, and drought-induced tree mortality in California
- Karin L. Riley, John T. Abatzoglou, Isaac C. Grenfell, Anna E. Klene, Faith Ann Heinsch. 2013. The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: The role of temporal scale
Tools
ArcFuels: WWETAC scientists developed ArcFuels, a quantitative wildfire risk assessment tool built to streamline fuel management planning. The application uses a toolbar in ArcMap that interfaces with stand-to-landscape-level forest growth simulations (i.e., Forest Vegetation Simulator) and a fire behavior model (i.e., FlamMap) to aid fuel treatment planning, wildfire behavior modeling, and wildfire risk assessments.

Map of regions examined through Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments by the Adaptation Partners.
Adaptation Partners and Adaptation Library: Adaptation Partners is a collaborative climate vulnerability research group who work with a diversity of organizations and stakeholders to develop multi-resource assessments. Information in the Adaptation Library is derived from climate change vulnerability assessments conducted by Adaptation Partners. Adaptation options are intended to inform sustainable management of natural resources, reduce the negative effects of climate change, transition ecosystems to a warmer climate, and help integrate climate change in natural resource management, planning, and business operations of federal land management agencies. These climate change adaptation actions are organized by categories of 1) sensitivity to a particular climate change effect, 2) corresponding strategies to mitigate the impacts of this climate change effect, and 3) specific tactical actions that can take place as an implementation of that particular strategy.
Forest Plan Database (FP_DECK): The Forest Plan Database Exchange of Current Knowledge (FP_DECK) is the only complete, searchable database of all Forest Service land and resource management plans. This allows anyone to conduct a search of individual forest plans or across multiple forest plans based on a topic of interest, such as management action, protected resource, or geographic location.
ForWarn II: ForWarn II uses satellite imagery to provide near real-time tracking of vegetation changes across landscapes in the United States. It is useful for both monitoring disturbances and tracking year-to-year variability. Derived products can also be used to develop insights into seasonal and inter-annual dynamics. ForWarn II was developed and is maintained by WWETAC's sister center, the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center.


Seed Zone Mapper: A seed zone is an area where plant materials can be transferred with little risk of being poorly adapted to their new location. The Seed Zone WebMap provides users with the seed zone data necessary for successful gene conservation, native plant restoration, and plant material development
MC2: WWETAC has supported the continued refinement and application of a model called MC2, which simulates global vegetation response to climate change. MC2 can be customized for a particular region using site-specific information and used to create projections of vegetation change under future climate scenarios. It can further predict vegetative interactions with wildfire and the resulting effects on carbon stocks and water runoff. MC2 simulations have been used in crafting management plans for multiple forests in the West and constitute an important tool for long-term planning. Contact: John Kim

Northwest Forest Threat Maps: Northwest Forest Threats is an interactive map and planning tool covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming. The map shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific ecosystem threat or combination of threats, including development, wildfire, insects, disease, or a combination thereof.

PhenoMap: Phenomap uses satellite imagery that is updated weekly to show the "greenness" of vegetation across the conterminous United States. This provides a near real-time assessment of land surface phenology. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service are also displayed. PhenoMap is useful in planning a variety of natural resource activities, such as livestock grazing, seed collection, fuels assessments, and wildlife management.

Socal EcoServe: The Southern California Ecosystem Services tool (SoCal EcoServe) allows users to map, quantify, and apply monetary value to ecological benefits derived from the chaparral ecosystems of the Angeles, Cleveland, Los Padres, and San Bernardino National Forests of southern California.
TACCIMO: The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a searchable database of scientific journals and published Forest Service environmental impact analysis related to climate and climate effects. TACCIMO serves as an ongoing repository of climate research and land management application.

WaSSI: Water supply is an important ecosystem service, one that is likely to change with future climatic conditions. The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model is a tool that can be used to simulate the effects of climate, land use, land cover, and water use on water availability. We used climate outputs from 16 general circulation models (GCMs) under high and low warming scenarios and associated vegetation dynamics simulated with the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model as inputs. The interactive dashboard allows you to explore the water yield projections from 2008 through 2099 for HUC8 subbasins.
Fact Sheets
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Webinars
Projects
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Publications
- Henrique F. Duarte, John Kim, Ge Sun, Steven G. McNulty, Jingfeng Xiao. 2024. Climate and vegetation change impacts on future conterminous United States water yield
- Claire M. Tortorelli, John B. Kim, Nicole M. Vaillant, Karin Riley, Alex Dye, Ty C. Nietupski, Kevin C. Vogler, Rebecca Lemons, Michelle Day, Meg A. Krawchuk, Becky K. Kerns. 2023. Feeding the fire: Annual grass invasion facilitates modeled fire spread across Inland Northwest forest‐mosaic landscapes
- Alla Golub, Brent Sohngen, Yongyang Cai, John Kim, Thomas Hertel. 2022. Costs of forest carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change impacts
- John Kim, Yueyang Jiang, Linnia Hawkins, Christopher J. Still. 2022. A comparison of multiple statistically downscaled climate change datasets for the conterminous USA
- Matthew J. Reilly, Steven P. Norman, Joseph J. O'Brien, E. Louise. Loudermilk. 2022. Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion
- Crystal Raymond, Harriet Morgan, David L. Peterson, Jessica Halofsky. 2022. A climate resilience guide for small forest landowners in Western Washington
- Zachary J. Robbins, E. Louise Loudermilk, Matthew J. Reilly, Joseph J. O'Brien, Kate Jones, Christopher T. Gerstle, Robert M. Scheller. 2022. Delayed fire mortality has long‐term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape
- Josh McDaniel, Chuck Rhodes, Frank McCormick, Tim Fegel, Marin Chambers, Allison Rhea, Christina Burri, Jen Kovecses, Thomas Timberlake. 2021. Forests, fire, and faucets: What we are learning about lingering water quality effects of high-severity wildfires
- Charlie Schrader-Patton, Nancy E. Grulke, Jacqueline P. Ott. 2021. Timing it right: Maximizing range management effectiveness with PhenoMap
- Matthew J. Reilly, Aaron Zuspan, Joshua S. Halofsky, Crystal Raymond, Andy McEvoy, Alex W. Dye, Daniel C. Donato, John B. Kim, Brian E. Potter, Nathan Walker, Raymond J. Davis, Christopher J. Dunn, David M. Bell, Matthew J. Gregory, James D. Johnston, Brian J. Harvey, Jessica E. Halofsky, Becky K. Kerns. 2022. Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA
- Jessica E. Halofsky, David L. Peterson, Rebecca A. Gravenmier. 2022. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in southwest Oregon
- Andrew G. Merschel, Peter A. Beedlow, David C. Shaw, David R. Woodruff, E. Henry Lee, Steven P. Cline, Randy L. Comeleo, R. Keala Hagmann, Matthew J. Reilly. 2021. An ecological perspective on living with fire in ponderosa pine forests of Oregon and Washington: Resistance, gone but not forgotten
- Paul Hessburg, Susan Charnley, Andrew Gray, Thomas Spies, David Peterson, Rebecca Flitcroft, Kendra Wendel, Jessica Halofsky, Eric White, John Marshall. 2021. Climate and wildfire adaptation of inland Northwest US forests
- Matthew J. Reilly, Jessica E. Halofsky, Meg A. Krawchuk, Daniel C. Donato, Paul F. Hessburg, James D. Johnston, Andrew G. Merschel, Mark E. Swanson, Joshua S. Halofsky, Thomas A. Spies. 2021. Fire ecology and management in Pacific Northwest forests
- James M. Vose, David L. Peterson, Christopher J. Fettig, Jessica E. Halofsky, J. Kevin. Hiers, Robert E. Keane, Rachel Loehman, Michael C. Stambaugh. 2021. Fire and forests in the 21st Century: Managing resilience under changing climates and fire regimes in USA forests
- Andy McEvoy, Becky K. Kerns, John B. Kim. 2021. Hazards of risk: Identifying plausible community wildfire disasters in low-frequency fire regimes
- Jessica E. Halofsky. 2021. Climate change effects in the Sierra Nevada
- Jessica E. Halofsky, David L. Peterson, Lara Y. Buluç, Jason M. Ko. 2021. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation for infrastructure and recreation in the Sierra Nevada
- Charlie Schrader-Patton, Nancy Grulke, Craig Bienz. 2021. Assessment of ponderosa pine vigor using four-band aerial imagery in south central Oregon: Crown objects to landscapes
- Charlie C. Schrader-Patton, Emma C. Underwood. 2021. New biomass estimates for chaparral-dominated Southern California landscapes
- Alex W. Dye, John B. Kim, Andrew McEvoy, Fang Fang, Karin L. Riley. 2021. Evaluating rural Pacific Northwest towns for wildfire evacuation vulnerability