shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata)

 Interpretation GuideView the guide to reading the interpretive narrations

Shortleaf pine is a widely distributed (10.5% of area), abundant southern species and our models show a substantial increase in suitable habitat plus moderate adaptability such that we class it as very good capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope with a changing climate, and even better under RCP 8.5. SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II also classes it as an excellent infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species, but the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model does not show potentials for the species to move into New England naturally within 100 years, despite suitable habitat appearing there according to RCP 8.5.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario