slash pine (Pinus elliottii)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 6.6 | 30.8 | 59534 | N/A |
| RFimp | 9 | 22 | 58259 | 0.98 |
| CCSM45 | 20.1 | 14.1 | 83254 | 1.43 |
| CCSM85 | 30.7 | 11.6 | 104727 | 1.8 |
| GFDL45 | 28.9 | 12.4 | 104662 | 1.8 |
| GFDL85 | 38 | 10.7 | 119283 | 2.05 |
| HAD45 | 23.8 | 11.9 | 82833 | 1.42 |
| HAD85 | 29.4 | 10.5 | 91027 | 1.56 |
| GCM45 | 29.3 | 10.5 | 90250 | 1.55 |
| GCM85 | 39 | 9.2 | 105015 | 1.8 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Slash pine is narrowly distributed (5.3% of area) but abundant and highly important (FIAiv=29.7, third highest of all species) southern pine modeled to increase dramatically in potential area occupied. Still classed as 'No change' for suitable habitat (because it is classified as a rare species as it occupies <10% of the eastern US), it does show an increase of 50-80% in suitable habitat overall. Soil and topographic conditions will likely constrain expansion but it is also quite adaptable so we give it a good capability rating, and modeled best under RCP 8.5. Some indicators show that it may have expanded its range in the last 50 years, but the SHIFT model does not portray northward expansion naturally as far as the suitable habitat is depicted in RCP 8.5.
Family: Pinaceae
Guild: opportunistic, long-lived intolerant
Functional Lifeform: large evergreen conifer
| 4.3 | 1.14 |
| -1.67 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact slash pine's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Dispersal Fire topkill
Primary Negative Traits
Shade tolerance Insect pests