balsam fir (Abies balsamea)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 10.3 | 12.5 | 37811 | N/A |
| RFimp | 12.2 | 10.4 | 37419 | 0.99 |
| CCSM45 | 10.5 | 6 | 18527 | 0.5 |
| CCSM85 | 10.8 | 6 | 18996 | 0.51 |
| GFDL45 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 18145 | 0.48 |
| GFDL85 | 10.5 | 6 | 18416 | 0.49 |
| HAD45 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 18404 | 0.49 |
| HAD85 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 17967 | 0.48 |
| GCM45 | 11 | 5.7 | 18396 | 0.49 |
| GCM85 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 18473 | 0.49 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Balsam fir is a narrow range, densely populated, and of high importance where it occurs. It has a reliable model that consistently showed no real change in overall habitat area but a substantial reduction in overall suitable habitat. Even though precipitation increases slightly, the 3.8-6.4C increase in heat by 2100 may be critical. It is also poorly adapted (Adapt=2.7) and is very susceptible to insects, fire, and drought, all boding poorly for this species in the long run. The fact that it is abundant in its range (7.3% of eastern US) provides a fair capability to cope with the changing climate. SHIFT outputs are not significant for this species as most of the habitat is occupied except for some infill and migration West in Minnesota.
Family: Pinaceae
Guild: persistent, slow growing understory tolerant
Functional Lifeform: small to medium-size evergreentree
| 2.7 | -3.00 |
| -0.35 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact balsam fir's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Fire topkill Drought