pond pine (Pinus serotina)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.2 | 12.4 | 4422 | N/A |
| RFimp | 1.5 | 7.6 | 3320 | 0.75 |
| CCSM45 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4925 | 1.48 |
| CCSM85 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 5172 | 1.56 |
| GFDL45 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4629 | 1.39 |
| GFDL85 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5090 | 1.53 |
| HAD45 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3670 | 1.11 |
| HAD85 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3762 | 1.13 |
| GCM45 | 4 | 3.7 | 4408 | 1.33 |
| GCM85 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 4675 | 1.41 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Pond pine is narrowly restricted (0.9% of area) along the eastern coast, sparse, and of high importance where found. Pond pine's model of medium reliability shows no change in suitable habitat under either scenario by 2100, but with some habitat moving up the eastern seaboard. However, it scores low for adaptability because of susceptibility to drought, insects, and low dispersal capabilities. Thus, it gets a poor rating for overall capability to cope with climate change across the eastern United States. The SHIFT model does suggest it as a possible infill species.
Family: Pinaceae
Guild: pioneer, wet-site, shade intolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium evergreen conifer
| 2.4 | -1.06 |
| -1.51 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact pond pine's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Drought Shade tolerance Insect pests Dispersal