eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 10.6 | 8.9 | 27799 | N/A |
| RFimp | 15.7 | 5.7 | 26078 | 0.94 |
| CCSM45 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 27232 | 1.04 |
| CCSM85 | 18.5 | 4.2 | 23060 | 0.88 |
| GFDL45 | 18.5 | 4.3 | 23263 | 0.89 |
| GFDL85 | 16.8 | 3.9 | 19124 | 0.73 |
| HAD45 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 22957 | 0.88 |
| HAD85 | 16.6 | 3.9 | 18797 | 0.72 |
| GCM45 | 20.3 | 4.1 | 24507 | 0.94 |
| GCM85 | 18.7 | 3.7 | 20338 | 0.78 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Eastern hemlock a narrowly distributed (7.8% of area), sparse, but high importance species, and is in danger due to the hemlock woolly adelgid, which itself has been moving north and attributed to the warming climate. So it has a low adaptability which may swamp out direct climate effects. Nonetheless, our models also show a small decline in habitat primarily under the harsh 8.5 scenario. Thus it gets a poor capability to cope. SHIFT shows both infill as well as migration into unoccupied portions of Maine.
Family: Pinaceae
Guild: persistent, slow-growing understory tolerant
Functional Lifeform: large evergreen conifer
| 2.7 | -1.34 |
| -0.88 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact eastern hemlock's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Drought