serviceberry (Amelanchier spp.)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 6.9 | 1.3 | 2602 | N/A |
| RFimp | 6.5 | 0.7 | 1277 | 0.49 |
| CCSM45 | 12.9 | 0.3 | 1187 | 0.93 |
| CCSM85 | 15.6 | 0.3 | 1229 | 0.96 |
| GFDL45 | 15 | 0.3 | 1283 | 1 |
| GFDL85 | 17.9 | 0.3 | 1510 | 1.18 |
| HAD45 | 17.2 | 0.3 | 1286 | 1.01 |
| HAD85 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1438 | 1.13 |
| GCM45 | 21.4 | 0.2 | 1254 | 0.98 |
| GCM85 | 24.6 | 0.2 | 1393 | 1.09 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Serviceberry is modeled at the genus level in that distinction is not made among potentially several species within the genus Amelanchier. Consequently it is mapped as a fairly common (5.4% of area) but widely disjunct taxon with low model reliability and modeled to show large expansion of habitat to the south even though abundance per area is greatly reduced. The SHIFT model, however, shows that only a very small portion of the projected suitable habitat could get colonized naturally within 100 years. Its capacity to cope is rated at poor.
Family: RosaceaeGuild: persitstant, shade tolerant
Functional Lifeform: small deciduous tree
| 4.8 | -0.38 |
| 0.98 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact serviceberry's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance Seedling establishment
Primary Negative Traits
Drought