river birch (Betula nigra)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.8 | 4.8 | 3991 | N/A |
| RFimp | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1835 | 0.46 |
| CCSM45 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 3031 | 1.65 |
| CCSM85 | 19.4 | 1.7 | 9573 | 5.22 |
| GFDL45 | 16.7 | 1.6 | 7929 | 4.32 |
| GFDL85 | 23.9 | 1.7 | 12158 | 6.62 |
| HAD45 | 20.3 | 1.8 | 10781 | 5.87 |
| HAD85 | 26 | 1.9 | 14147 | 7.71 |
| GCM45 | 21.7 | 1.1 | 7247 | 3.95 |
| GCM85 | 27.6 | 1.5 | 11960 | 6.52 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
River birch is a narrowly distributed (2.5% of area), sparse, low IV species across much of the south. It is modeled to increase substantially in habitat under either scenario but especially under RCP 8.5. The SHIFT model suggests that much of the new habitat would have at least some chance of colonization within 100, should conditions allow. Moderately adaptable but with low model reliability, we rate its capability to cope as fair.
Family: Betulaceae
Guild: pioneer, spring dispersed, moist site tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium sized deciduous tree
| 3.7 | -0.45 |
| -0.32 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact river birch's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Dispersal
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill Shade tolerance Drought