pecan (Carya illinoinensis)

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Pecan is a narrowly distributed (3.9% of area), sparse, but high IV species common in several southern species, concentrated in Texas and Oklahoma but extending into Illinois. Its model, of low reliability, shows a huge expansion of habitat, especially under RCP 8.5. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model shows that only a very small portion of the projected suitable habitat could get colonized naturally within 100 years. Its adaptability is low, resulting in a poor (4.5) to fair (8.5) overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope with a changing climate. SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II does, however, score it to be a decent infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario