shagbark hickory (Carya ovata)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 13.3 | 5 | 19592 | N/A |
| RFimp | 18.2 | 2.8 | 15133 | 0.77 |
| CCSM45 | 30.9 | 1.9 | 17642 | 1.17 |
| CCSM85 | 37.6 | 1.7 | 19061 | 1.26 |
| GFDL45 | 39.6 | 1.9 | 22174 | 1.47 |
| GFDL85 | 40.6 | 1.7 | 20866 | 1.38 |
| HAD45 | 37.4 | 1.8 | 19269 | 1.27 |
| HAD85 | 37.8 | 1.6 | 17408 | 1.15 |
| GCM45 | 41.9 | 1.6 | 19699 | 1.3 |
| GCM85 | 43.6 | 1.5 | 19117 | 1.26 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Shagbark hickory is a widespread (13.6% of area), though sparse and low IV, hickory throughout much of the Central Hardwoods. With a moderate rating of adaptability and a medium reliable model suggesting no change in suitable habitat, the maps indicate some additional suitable habitat north into Minnesota and Maine under RCP 8.5. However, the SHIFT model does not indicate any chance of natural colonization there within 100 years. We project an overall capability rating of fair for this species.
Family: Juglandaceae
Guild: persistent, large-seeded, advance growthdependent
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 4.4 | -0.20 |
| 0.37 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact shagbark hickory's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Fire topkill