black hickory (Carya texana)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5.9 | 5.4 | 9390 | N/A |
| RFimp | 7.3 | 3.7 | 7988 | 0.85 |
| CCSM45 | 21 | 2.7 | 16927 | 2.12 |
| CCSM85 | 45.4 | 2.6 | 34896 | 4.37 |
| GFDL45 | 40.6 | 2.6 | 31147 | 3.9 |
| GFDL85 | 62.7 | 2.9 | 54294 | 6.8 |
| HAD45 | 48.1 | 2.9 | 40974 | 5.13 |
| HAD85 | 66.9 | 3.1 | 61526 | 7.7 |
| GCM45 | 49.2 | 2.1 | 29683 | 3.72 |
| GCM85 | 70.9 | 2.4 | 50246 | 6.29 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Black hickory is a narrowly distributed (5.4% of area), dense, low IV species within its core area of Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Though it has a highly reliable model suggesting large increases in habitat to the north and northeast, the amount of expansion as suggested especially by the RCP 8.5 scenario seems exaggerated. This exageration also occurs with other species common and confined to the southwest quadrant of the eastern US, such as pecan, winged elm, and post oak. However, the SHIFT model shows that only a very small portion of the projected suitable habitat could get colonized naturally within 100 years. Nonetheless, the metrics for this species yield an overall rating for the species as fair (4.5) to good (8.5), and SHIFT indicates it to be a potential infill species under RCP 4.5.
Family: Juglandaceae
Guild: persistent, large seeded, advance growth dependent
Functional Lifeform: small to medium deciduous tree
| 4.1 | 1.04 |
| -2.27 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact black hickory's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Environment habitat specificity Shade tolerance