mockernut hickory (Carya alba)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 21.1 | 3.6 | 22288 | N/A |
| RFimp | 28.9 | 2.2 | 18770 | 0.84 |
| CCSM45 | 49.6 | 2.4 | 34244 | 1.82 |
| CCSM85 | 60.6 | 2.7 | 47736 | 2.54 |
| GFDL45 | 58.9 | 2.6 | 44913 | 2.39 |
| GFDL85 | 70.2 | 2.7 | 55860 | 2.98 |
| HAD45 | 59.3 | 2.7 | 47134 | 2.51 |
| HAD85 | 71.2 | 2.8 | 58628 | 3.12 |
| GCM45 | 61 | 2.4 | 42099 | 2.24 |
| GCM85 | 73.1 | 2.5 | 54078 | 2.88 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Mockernut hickory is widely distributed (17.2% of area), dense, and low IV, across much of the eastern US, and is modeled, with a medium reliable model, to roughly double its overall habitat by 2100, including into the far north of the eastern US. However, the SHIFT model shows that only a portion of the projected suitable habitat could have any chance of getting colonized naturally within 100 years (but New York and some of New England could see the species expand there under RCP 8.5). It is also highly adaptable such that its overall rating is very good for capability to cope with a changing climate.
Family: Juglandaceae
Guild: persistent, large-seeded, advance growthdependent
Functional Lifeform: medium-size to large deciduous tree
| 5.4 | 1.69 |
| -0.28 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact mockernut hickory's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill