sugarberry (Celtis laevigata)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 6.8 | 8.4 | 16709 | N/A |
| RFimp | 8.5 | 5 | 12512 | 0.75 |
| CCSM45 | 32.9 | 3.2 | 30960 | 2.47 |
| CCSM85 | 57.9 | 3.6 | 61584 | 4.92 |
| GFDL45 | 51.9 | 3.3 | 50105 | 4 |
| GFDL85 | 74.7 | 3.8 | 84098 | 6.72 |
| HAD45 | 58.4 | 3.8 | 64732 | 5.17 |
| HAD85 | 78.1 | 4.3 | 97724 | 7.81 |
| GCM45 | 59.5 | 2.8 | 48600 | 3.88 |
| GCM85 | 79.9 | 3.5 | 81144 | 6.49 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Sugarberry is narrowly distributed (8.0% of area), dense, and high IV species, most common in the southwest quadrant of the eastern US, and the medium reliability model suggests a very large expansion of habitat to the north and northeast. As with species like black hickory, post oak, and winged elm, we hesitate to trust the amount of expansion of suitable habitat as suggested here, but temperatures are expected to dramatically increase especially under RCP 8.5, so who knows? The SHIFT model shows that only a very small portion of the projected suitable habitat could get colonized naturally within 100 years.We do class the species as fair (4.5) to good (8.5) capability to cope with a changing climate. SHIFT also suggests the species to be appropriate for infill planting, especially under RCP 8.5.
Family: Ulmaceae
Guild: opportunistic, fast-growing understory tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 4.6 | -0.17 |
| 0.64 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact sugarberry's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance Seedling establishment
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill