black ash (Fraxinus nigra)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 7.4 | 6.3 | 13746 | N/A |
| RFimp | 9.3 | 4.4 | 12093 | 0.88 |
| CCSM45 | 14.3 | 3.2 | 13349 | 1.1 |
| CCSM85 | 18.7 | 2.3 | 12610 | 1.04 |
| GFDL45 | 15.6 | 2.9 | 13145 | 1.09 |
| GFDL85 | 21.4 | 1.9 | 11677 | 0.97 |
| HAD45 | 22 | 2 | 12734 | 1.05 |
| HAD85 | 21.6 | 1.7 | 10922 | 0.9 |
| GCM45 | 24.4 | 1.8 | 13100 | 1.08 |
| GCM85 | 33 | 1.2 | 11748 | 0.97 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Black ash is widely distributed (5.8% of area), sparse, but high IV and abundant in the swampy land of the northern forests which for the most part, has not yet been decimated by EAB. Its northern, cold climates hopefully could help slow the spread of EAB, but the species is quite susceptible when attacked. Our medium reliable models suggest no change in suitable habitat in the future. Our metrics suggest a poor overall capability for this species, but again, EAB is likely to dictate its potentials.
Family: Oleaceae
Guild: opportunistic, fast-growing understory tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 1.7 | -1.31 |
| -3.00 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact black ash's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Shade tolerance Dispersal Drought Seedling establishment Fire topkill Edaphic specificity