green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 22.7 | 7.3 | 48501 | N/A |
| RFimp | 29.6 | 3.9 | 34236 | 0.71 |
| CCSM45 | 65.3 | 3.4 | 64896 | 1.9 |
| CCSM85 | 78.5 | 3.6 | 81778 | 2.39 |
| GFDL45 | 78.8 | 3.5 | 80748 | 2.36 |
| GFDL85 | 89.7 | 3.6 | 94029 | 2.75 |
| HAD45 | 77.6 | 3.6 | 81482 | 2.38 |
| HAD85 | 88.7 | 3.6 | 93332 | 2.73 |
| GCM45 | 81 | 3.2 | 75752 | 2.21 |
| GCM85 | 91.1 | 3.4 | 89753 | 2.62 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Green ash is abundant throughout much of the eastern US (24.8% of area, fifth highest among all species), with its core area mostly in the western half of the eastern US. Although the models suggest an increase in habitat westward and northward, the emerald ash borer is rapidly pushing the species the other way. SHIFT models also constrain that migration over the next 100 years. Thus the overall capability rating of very good is only true in the absence (or great reduction) of EAB. The same goes for its infill designation - do not plant unless resistent varieties are perfected.
Family: Oleaceae
Guild: opportunistic, fast-growing understory tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 4 | -0.13 |
| -0.25 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact green ash's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Fire topkill Shade tolerance