loblolly-bay (Gordonia lasianthus)

 Interpretation GuideView the guide to reading the interpretive narrations

Loblolly-bay is narrowly distributed (1.0% of area) but has a fairly high IV in only the extreme southeastern quadrant of the eastern US. The medium reliable model suggests a slight expansion of habitat, but it is still classed as 'No change'. The SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model restricts natural migration up the eastern seaboard on this species. With moderate adaptability, we rate the overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope as fair. It is also classed a candidate for infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species.ing.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario