black walnut (Juglans nigra)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 11.9 | 6.9 | 24132 | N/A |
| RFimp | 17.1 | 3.7 | 18348 | 0.76 |
| CCSM45 | 26.2 | 3 | 23296 | 1.27 |
| CCSM85 | 36.8 | 2.9 | 31785 | 1.73 |
| GFDL45 | 38.4 | 3.1 | 35424 | 1.93 |
| GFDL85 | 47.9 | 3.1 | 44120 | 2.4 |
| HAD45 | 37.1 | 3 | 32942 | 1.8 |
| HAD85 | 44.1 | 2.9 | 38004 | 2.07 |
| GCM45 | 40.6 | 2.6 | 30565 | 1.67 |
| GCM85 | 48.6 | 2.7 | 37983 | 2.07 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Black walnut is widely distributed (14.4% of area), occupying a large portion of the FIA plots within its distribution, and with fairly high IV. It exists throughout the central portion of the eastern US, and the low reliable model suggests an expansion of suitable habitat across the northern half of the region (especially under RCP 8.5). However, the SHIFT model largely limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some northward migration is modeled. Moderate in adaptability, we provide an overall rating of good for capability to cope with a changing climate.
Family: Juglandaceae
Guild: opportunistic, long-lived intolerant
Functional Lifeform: large deciduous tree
| 4 | 0.35 |
| -0.83 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact black walnut's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Seedling establishment
Primary Negative Traits
Shade tolerance Drought