southern magnolia (Magnolia grandiflora)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2 | 2.5 | 1442 | N/A |
| RFimp | 2 | 1.4 | 794 | 0.55 |
| CCSM45 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 4614 | 5.81 |
| CCSM85 | 21.7 | 1.2 | 7680 | 9.68 |
| GFDL45 | 21.4 | 1.2 | 7651 | 9.64 |
| GFDL85 | 25.2 | 1.2 | 8701 | 10.96 |
| HAD45 | 10.5 | 1.1 | 3373 | 4.25 |
| HAD85 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 2967 | 3.74 |
| GCM45 | 22.1 | 0.8 | 5213 | 6.57 |
| GCM85 | 27.6 | 0.8 | 6449 | 8.13 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Southern magnolia is narrowly distributed (1.5% of area), sparse, and with low IV across the southern portion of the Gulf States; however, the low reliable model suggests a small increase (RCP 8.5), or expansion of this species, northward. However, because of its rarity, along with its moderate adaptability, it rates as fair (RCP 8.5) to poor (RCP 4.5) with regards to capacity to cope. SHIFT shows good infill and minor migration.
Family: Magnoliaceae
Guild: opportunistic, fast growing, shade tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium sized evergreen tree
| 4.9 | 0.56 |
| 0.40 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact southern magnolia's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Seedling establishment Shade tolerance Fire topkill
Primary Negative Traits
Drought Environment habitat specificity