blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 27.9 | 3.2 | 26285 | N/A |
| RFimp | 36.2 | 2.2 | 23655 | 0.9 |
| CCSM45 | 55.3 | 2.6 | 41859 | 1.77 |
| CCSM85 | 63.2 | 3 | 55363 | 2.34 |
| GFDL45 | 62.6 | 2.9 | 52851 | 2.23 |
| GFDL85 | 67.7 | 3.1 | 61098 | 2.58 |
| HAD45 | 61.9 | 2.8 | 50327 | 2.13 |
| HAD85 | 68.1 | 2.9 | 58923 | 2.49 |
| GCM45 | 63.7 | 2.6 | 48351 | 2.04 |
| GCM85 | 69.7 | 2.9 | 58467 | 2.47 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Blackgum is widely distributed (21.6% of area), dense, though low IV across the central and southern portion of the region, and the medium reliable models suggests small to large increases in habitat, including way up into New England, depending on scenario. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though a fairly large northward expansion has at least some possibility. It is rated as highly adaptable, and with an overall rating of very good for capability to cope with a changing climate.
Family: Nyssaceae
Guild: opportunistic, dispersal limited (large-seeded)
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 5.9 | 1.46 |
| 0.83 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact blackgum's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance Fire topkill