redbay (Persea borbonia)

 Interpretation GuideView the guide to reading the interpretive narrations

Redbay is narrowly distributed (3.0% of area), sparse, and with low IV, but fairly common along the southern seaboard. Its low reliable model suggests an increase in habitat (though still classed as 'No change' because of its rarity across the eastern US) under both scenarios of climate change. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those northern locations (e.g., New Jersey) from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some northward expansion along the coast has some possibility. A highly adaptable species, it ranks as good in our assessment of capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope with a changing climate.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario