redbay (Persea borbonia)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3053 | N/A |
| RFimp | 4.1 | 1.7 | 2067 | 0.68 |
| CCSM45 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 3578 | 1.73 |
| CCSM85 | 9.5 | 1.6 | 4485 | 2.17 |
| GFDL45 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 4178 | 2.02 |
| GFDL85 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 5016 | 2.43 |
| HAD45 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 3440 | 1.66 |
| HAD85 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 3113 | 1.51 |
| GCM45 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 3732 | 1.81 |
| GCM85 | 12.4 | 1.2 | 4205 | 2.03 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Redbay is narrowly distributed (3.0% of area), sparse, and with low IV, but fairly common along the southern seaboard. Its low reliable model suggests an increase in habitat (though still classed as 'No change' because of its rarity across the eastern US) under both scenarios of climate change. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those northern locations (e.g., New Jersey) from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some northward expansion along the coast has some possibility. A highly adaptable species, it ranks as good in our assessment of capability to cope with a changing climate.
Family: Lauraceae
Guild: opportunistic, dispersal limited, shade tolerant
Functional Lifeform: small to medium evergreen tree
| 6.3 | 2.59 |
| -0.10 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact redbay's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Insect pests Dispersal Shade tolerance