water elm (Planera aquatica)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 0.7 | 4.8 | 932 | N/A |
| RFimp | 0.8 | 1.7 | 408 | 0.44 |
| CCSM45 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 761 | 1.87 |
| CCSM85 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1367 | 3.35 |
| GFDL45 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 837 | 2.05 |
| GFDL85 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1472 | 3.61 |
| HAD45 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1361 | 3.34 |
| HAD85 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1851 | 4.54 |
| GCM45 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 986 | 2.42 |
| GCM85 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1563 | 3.83 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Water-elm, or planetree is a rare species confined to some portions of the lower Mississippi River and part of coastal South Carolina (0.6% of area). The low reliable model suggests an modest increase in suitable habitat (only under RCP 8.5, and still classed as 'No change' because of its rarity) in the Mississippi lowlands, and SHIFT suggests some possibility of expanding into those areas within 100 years, but its moderate adaptability and rarity yields an overall capability rating of poor.
Family: Ulmaceae
Guild: moist-site, spring dispersed, shade tolerant
Functional Lifeform: small deciduous tree
| 3.8 | 0.13 |
| -0.83 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact water elm's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill Environment habitat specificity