eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3.1 | 13.5 | 12176 | N/A |
| RFimp | 3.8 | 5.3 | 5950 | 0.49 |
| CCSM45 | 10 | 4 | 11795 | 1.98 |
| CCSM85 | 18.5 | 4 | 21723 | 3.65 |
| GFDL45 | 17 | 4.1 | 20484 | 3.44 |
| GFDL85 | 21.7 | 4.2 | 26595 | 4.47 |
| HAD45 | 17.2 | 4 | 20137 | 3.38 |
| HAD85 | 20.9 | 3.9 | 23702 | 3.98 |
| GCM45 | 18.6 | 3.2 | 17492 | 2.94 |
| GCM85 | 22.6 | 3.6 | 24029 | 4.04 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Eastern cottonwood is a narrowly distributed (5.0% of area), sparse, but high IV species, fairly common and scattered across the east central portion of the study region. The low reliable model suggests a potential for increased habitat to the northwest quadrant of the eastern US, especially under RCP 8.5 (though still classed as 'No change' because it only occupies 5% of the eastern US). However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new suitable locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion has possibility. Its adaptability is moderate, and the overall rating for the species in capability to cope with climate change is fair. SHIFT does classify this species as a decent species for infilling should conditions be appropriate.
Family: Salicaceae
Guild: pioneer, moist-site intolerant
Functional Lifeform: large deciduous tree
| 3.9 | 0.22 |
| -0.75 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact eastern cottonwood's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Temperature gradient
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Shade tolerance Disease Fire topkill