swamp white oak (Quercus bicolor)

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Swamp white oak is narrowly distributed (1.6% of area), sparse, low IV, and rare across the Midwest, yielding a low reliable model, but that predicts an increase (though still classed as 'No change' because of rarity) in habitat by 2100, including into the Northwoods and Maine under RCP 4.5. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some northward expansion has possibility. It has moderate adaptability but its low abundance yields a poor overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. rating for the species.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario