scarlet oak (Quercus coccinea)

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Scarlet oak is widely distributed (8.9% of area), dense, common, but with low IV, throughout the broad Appalachian belt. The medium reliable model indicates no overall change in the quantity of habitat under either scenario, but that the range of habitat extends northeasterly, extending all the way into Maine. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though a fairly large northward expansion has some possibility. It has medium adaptability and an overall rating of fair capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope with the changing climate. SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II does indicate the species appropriate for infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species.ing when conditions allow.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario