southern red oak (Quercus falcata)

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Southern red oak is a widely distributed (13.9% of area), dense, low IV, but common species across the southern US, and our medium reliable model suggests a large increase in habitat throughout the South, but also a northeastern extension of range especially under RCP 8.5. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though a fairly large northward expansion has some possibility. It also rates a high adaptability rating such that its overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope with a changing climate is very good. It also is rated very highly by SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II as a potential infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario