overcup oak (Quercus lyrata)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.4 | 5.9 | 4160 | N/A |
| RFimp | 3 | 3.2 | 2814 | 0.68 |
| CCSM45 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4557 | 1.62 |
| CCSM85 | 12.4 | 2.1 | 7711 | 2.74 |
| GFDL45 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 5683 | 2.02 |
| GFDL85 | 16.2 | 2.1 | 10128 | 3.6 |
| HAD45 | 13.1 | 2.2 | 8602 | 3.06 |
| HAD85 | 17.8 | 2.2 | 11391 | 4.05 |
| GCM45 | 13.9 | 1.5 | 6281 | 2.23 |
| GCM85 | 19.7 | 1.7 | 9744 | 3.46 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Overcup oak is a narrowly distributed (2.3% of area), sparse, low IV and common species in the south central portion of the US; primarily though, in the lower Mississippi River basin. Its medium reliable model suggests an increase in habitat (though still classed as 'No change' because of <10% area) under both scenarios, including up the eastern seaboard. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some northward expansion has possibility. It, however, has a low adaptability rating, yielding an overall rating of poor. Still, SHIFT models it to be an adquate infill species.
Family: Fagaceae
Guild: persistent, large-seeded, advance growth dependent
Functional Lifeform: medium sized deciduous tree
| 3.2 | -0.51 |
| -0.95 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact overcup oak's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill Insect pests Drought