bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5.7 | 11.8 | 19926 | N/A |
| RFimp | 8 | 6.1 | 14361 | 0.72 |
| CCSM45 | 15.3 | 5.4 | 24459 | 1.7 |
| CCSM85 | 17.1 | 5.5 | 27383 | 1.91 |
| GFDL45 | 17.5 | 5.7 | 29220 | 2.03 |
| GFDL85 | 18 | 5.3 | 28167 | 1.96 |
| HAD45 | 17.3 | 5.3 | 26949 | 1.88 |
| HAD85 | 16.3 | 4.8 | 22957 | 1.6 |
| GCM45 | 18.9 | 4.8 | 26896 | 1.87 |
| GCM85 | 18.7 | 4.8 | 26183 | 1.82 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Bur oak is narrowly distributed (7.8% of area), dense but with high IV, and common species in the northwestern quadrant of the eastern US, often the only oak in this region. The medium reliable model suggests an increase in habitat (though still classed as 'No change' because of <10% area) throughout this quadrant. Suitable habitat is modeled to greatly increase especially in Minnesota and Iowa by century's end. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though a fairly large expansion into this region has some possibility, and northern Minnesota has a quite high possibility of natural colonization. Its high adaptability rating (drought and fire tolerance) pushes its overall rating to good.
Family: Fagaceae
Guild: persistent, large-seeded, advance growthdependent
Functional Lifeform: large deciduous tree
| 6.4 | 2.77 |
| -0.16 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact bur oak's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Drought Fire topkill