blackjack oak (Quercus marilandica)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 6.1 | 5.6 | 10062 | N/A |
| RFimp | 6.7 | 3.7 | 7296 | 0.73 |
| CCSM45 | 24 | 2.9 | 20771 | 2.85 |
| CCSM85 | 49.3 | 3.4 | 49805 | 6.83 |
| GFDL45 | 45.4 | 3.4 | 45389 | 6.22 |
| GFDL85 | 66.4 | 4 | 77920 | 10.68 |
| HAD45 | 48.5 | 3.6 | 51921 | 7.12 |
| HAD85 | 68.1 | 4.3 | 86326 | 11.83 |
| GCM45 | 50 | 2.7 | 39361 | 5.39 |
| GCM85 | 70.6 | 3.4 | 71361 | 9.78 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Blackjack oak is narrowly distributed (6.2% of area), sparse, and of low IV commonly found in the southern half of the eastern US, but primarily in the southwestern quadrant of our study area and its medium reliable model suggests a large expansion of suitable habitat especially under RCP 8.5. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion into this region has possibility. Its adaptability rating is also high so that its overall capability to cope with the changing climate is rated as very good. SHIFT also labels it as a very good species for infilling.
Family: Fagaceae
Guild: pioneer, dry-site intolerant
Functional Lifeform: small to medium-size deciduous tree
| 5.6 | 1.56 |
| 0.21 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact blackjack oak's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Drought Seedling establishment Fire Regeneration Vegetative reproduction
Primary Negative Traits
Shade tolerance Fire topkill