water oak (Quercus nigra)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 21.2 | 7.5 | 46853 | N/A |
| RFimp | 27.1 | 5.7 | 45051 | 0.96 |
| CCSM45 | 42.3 | 7.6 | 93711 | 2.08 |
| CCSM85 | 53.1 | 8.6 | 134192 | 2.98 |
| GFDL45 | 50.3 | 8.5 | 125595 | 2.79 |
| GFDL85 | 63.6 | 7.9 | 148358 | 3.29 |
| HAD45 | 51.7 | 8.4 | 127963 | 2.84 |
| HAD85 | 63.3 | 8.1 | 151469 | 3.36 |
| GCM45 | 52.1 | 7.6 | 115756 | 2.57 |
| GCM85 | 65.3 | 7.5 | 144677 | 3.21 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Water oak is widely distributed (16.8% of area), dense, high IV and common species across the southern portion of the study region. Its highly reliable model predicts a large increase and expansion of habitat northward, especially under RCP 8.5. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some northward expansion has possibility, and a narrow band northward has quite high migration potentials. Moderately adaptable, its abundance and increase in habitat dictate a very good capability for this species to cope with the changing climate. SHIFT also recognizes this species as a very good infill species.
Family: Fagaceae
Guild: persistent, large-seeded, advance growthdependent
Functional Lifeform: medium-size to large deciduousor semievergreen tree
| 3.7 | -0.17 |
| -0.59 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact water oak's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Temperature gradient
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill Shade tolerance