post oak (Quercus stellata)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 19.6 | 10.2 | 58846 | N/A |
| RFimp | 24.5 | 7.1 | 50943 | 0.87 |
| CCSM45 | 51.6 | 7.3 | 111244 | 2.18 |
| CCSM85 | 70.1 | 9 | 184807 | 3.63 |
| GFDL45 | 67.2 | 8.5 | 168394 | 3.31 |
| GFDL85 | 86.9 | 9.5 | 242243 | 4.76 |
| HAD45 | 69.8 | 9.5 | 194581 | 3.82 |
| HAD85 | 89.4 | 10.4 | 272772 | 5.35 |
| GCM45 | 71.7 | 7.5 | 158085 | 3.1 |
| GCM85 | 91 | 8.7 | 233312 | 4.58 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Post oak is widely distributed (17.5% of area), dense, high IV, and abundant, especially in the western portion of the southern US. Its highly reliable model suggests a surprisingly vast expansion of the species all the way to the northeast, especially under RCP 8.5. However, as with a few other species abundant in the Missouri Ozarks region (e.g., blackjack oak, winged elm), it has habitat expanding very widely due to the warming conditions over much of the country that match those in the Ozarks. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though it also shows that some expansion northward and within its current occupation in the southeast quadrant have quite high potentials for colonization. Its high adaptability combined with its abundance yields a very good capability to cope with a changing climate. SHIFT also indicates it to be an excellent infill species.
Family: Fagaceae
Guild: persistent, large-seeded, advance growthdependent
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 5.7 | 2.17 |
| -0.59 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact post oak's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Drought Temperature gradient Fire topkill
Primary Negative Traits
Shade tolerance Insect pests Disease