post oak (Quercus stellata)

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Post oak is widely distributed (17.5% of area), dense, high IV, and abundant, especially in the western portion of the southern US. Its highly reliable model suggests a surprisingly vast expansion of the species all the way to the northeast, especially under RCP 8.5. However, as with a few other species abundant in the Missouri Ozarks region (e.g., blackjack oak, winged elm), it has habitat expanding very widely due to the warming conditions over much of the country that match those in the Ozarks. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though it also shows that some expansion northward and within its current occupation in the southeast quadrant have quite high potentials for colonization. Its high adaptability combined with its abundance yields a very good capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope with a changing climate. SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II also indicates it to be an excellent infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario