black oak (Quercus velutina)

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Black oak is a widely distributed (19.8% of area), dense, high IV, and abundant species across the central 2/3 portion of the eastern US. Its highly reliable model predicts an increase in habitat, increasing its range up to the Canadian border across most of the eastern US. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion into this region has possibility. Its adaptability is rated as medium. Its overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. rating to cope with a changing climate is very good, and SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II indicates it to be a very good infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario