black willow (Salix nigra)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5.1 | 9.4 | 14108 | N/A |
| RFimp | 5.3 | 4.3 | 6616 | 0.47 |
| CCSM45 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 9915 | 1.5 |
| CCSM85 | 23.6 | 3 | 21047 | 3.18 |
| GFDL45 | 19.9 | 3.1 | 17913 | 2.71 |
| GFDL85 | 38.7 | 3 | 33749 | 5.1 |
| HAD45 | 26.2 | 2.9 | 22496 | 3.4 |
| HAD85 | 46.3 | 2.8 | 37847 | 5.72 |
| GCM45 | 28.5 | 2 | 16776 | 2.54 |
| GCM85 | 51 | 2.1 | 30888 | 4.67 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Black willow is sparsely distributed (6.2% of area), but with high IV when found, and collectively across most of the eastern US, it can be considered a common species. Our low reliable model suggests an increase in suitable habitat by 2100, concentrated around the lower Mississippi Valley and especially under RCP 8.5. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion into this region has possibility. It is, however, rated with a low adaptability (e.g., susceptibility to drought and fire) to climate change such that its overall capability to cope with climate change is rated as poor. SHIFT does, however, list it as a viable infill species.
Family: Salicaceae
Guild: pioneer, moist-site, shade intolerant
Functional Lifeform: large deciduous tree
| 2.8 | -0.31 |
| -2.13 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact black willow's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Shade tolerance Fire topkill Drought