black spruce (Picea mariana)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 4.8 | 10.7 | 15075 | N/A |
| RFimp | 6.2 | 7.8 | 14252 | 0.95 |
| CCSM45 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 6995 | 0.49 |
| CCSM85 | 5 | 4.3 | 6347 | 0.45 |
| GFDL45 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 6389 | 0.45 |
| GFDL85 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 6466 | 0.45 |
| HAD45 | 5 | 4.3 | 6362 | 0.45 |
| HAD85 | 5 | 4.2 | 6211 | 0.44 |
| GCM45 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 6612 | 0.46 |
| GCM85 | 5.4 | 4 | 6348 | 0.45 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Black spruce occupies the northern tier and has narrow range (3.4% of area), sparse density, but relatively high importance where it occurs (FIAiv=10.3, similar to balsam fir). Though black spruce models do not change greatly in area occupied, the large reduction of mean IV yielded a decrease in suitable habitat. Its medium adaptability was influenced by both positive (e.g., dispersal) and negative traits (insects, fire, drought); we score it with a poor capability to cope because of the negative factors and decrease in suitable habitat. Nonetheless, the SHIFT model suggests it a decent species for infilling.
Family: Pinaceae
Guild: pioneer, spring dispersed, moist-site, shade tolerant
Functional Lifeform: small-medium evergreen conifer
| 4.3 | -2.14 |
| 1.24 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact black spruce's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance Environment habitat specificity Dispersal
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill Insect pests Drought