black spruce (Picea mariana)

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Black spruce occupies the northern tier and has narrow range (3.4% of area), sparse density, but relatively high importance where it occurs (FIAiv=10.3, similar to balsam fir). Though black spruce models do not change greatly in area occupied, the large reduction of mean IV yielded a decrease in suitable habitat. Its medium adaptability was influenced by both positive (e.g., dispersal) and negative traits (insects, fire, drought); we score it with a poor capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope because of the negative factors and decrease in suitable habitat. Nonetheless, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model suggests it a decent species for infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species.ing.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario