winged elm (Ulmus alata)

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Winged elm is widely distributed (14.7% of area), dense, but with low IV across the southern half of the eastern US, but especially in the southwest portion. Its medium reliable model suggests a large expansion of habitat, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Like post oak and blackjack oak, however, it shows a surprisingly large expansion into the northeastern section of the country, especially under RCP 8.5; more than we would expect. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion into this region has possibility (including a band of quite high colonization potentials under RCP 8.5). It is moderately adaptable to a changing climate and we rate the species as very good in its overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. to cope with a changing climate. The SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model does identify the species as an excellent infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species, even though most of the new northern habitat modeled by DISTRIB-II will not be realized.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario