winged elm (Ulmus alata)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 17.5 | 4.2 | 21304 | N/A |
| RFimp | 21 | 3 | 18626 | 0.87 |
| CCSM45 | 39.8 | 3.6 | 42117 | 2.26 |
| CCSM85 | 52.5 | 4.4 | 67360 | 3.62 |
| GFDL45 | 48.6 | 3.9 | 55289 | 2.97 |
| GFDL85 | 68.5 | 4 | 80770 | 4.34 |
| HAD45 | 55.2 | 4.6 | 74810 | 4.02 |
| HAD85 | 71.2 | 4.9 | 103364 | 5.55 |
| GCM45 | 55.7 | 3.5 | 57406 | 3.08 |
| GCM85 | 73.9 | 3.9 | 83836 | 4.5 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Winged elm is widely distributed (14.7% of area), dense, but with low IV across the southern half of the eastern US, but especially in the southwest portion. Its medium reliable model suggests a large expansion of habitat, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Like post oak and blackjack oak, however, it shows a surprisingly large expansion into the northeastern section of the country, especially under RCP 8.5; more than we would expect. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion into this region has possibility (including a band of quite high colonization potentials under RCP 8.5). It is moderately adaptable to a changing climate and we rate the species as very good in its overall capability to cope with a changing climate. The SHIFT model does identify the species as an excellent infill species, even though most of the new northern habitat modeled by DISTRIB-II will not be realized.
Family: Ulmaceae
Guild: pioneer, spring-dispersed, moist-site tolerant
Functional Lifeform: small to medium-size deciduous tree
| 3.6 | -0.58 |
| -0.30 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact winged elm's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Insect pests Disease