American elm (Ulmus americana)

 Interpretation GuideView the guide to reading the interpretive narrations

American elm is widely distributed (33.3% of area, third behind red maple and black cherry), dense, and with high IV. Though hit hard by Dutch elm disease, it still abundant in the western portion of the study area. Its medium reliable model suggests a large increase in suitable habitat by 2100, primarily into the south and east portions of the eastern US. Additionally, because the species is sporatically present across those regions, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model does suggest a potential for a fair amount of natural colonization. However, the fact that the species is susceptible to Dutch elm disease (DED) may swamp any potential expansion of the species, and we would expect overall declines in the species by 2100 even though some tolerant cultivars are now becoming available. Despite the DED, it is rated as moderately adaptable with an overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. rating, because of its current abundance and increase in modelled habitat, is very good. However, this rating could change due to DED. SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II also suggests it as a good infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species (though only use resistant varieties).

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario