cedar elm (Ulmus crassifolia)

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Cedar elm is a narrowly distributed (3.2% of area), dense, and high IV within is range concentrated in Texas. The medium reliable model shows a huge expansion of the species to the north and northeast, especially under RCP 8.5. Like other species concentrated to the southwestern portion of the study region, the future habitat expands a surprising amount to the northeast. However, the SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion into this region has possibility. It is also of low adaptability but the large modeled increase in suitable habitat still yields an overall capabilityAn overall estimate of capability for the species to cope or persist with the changing climate within the eastern US. of fair (RCP 4.5) to good (RCP 8.5). SHIFTMigration model that calculates the likelihood of colonization, based on current abundance over an approximately 100-year time period period to roughly intersect the future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB-II recognizes it as a decent infillThe species is projected, according to SHIFT, to be a good species to plant to ‘fill in’ suitable habitats, most often in the general proximity and gaps present in the current range of the species. species, but very little of the expansion into the new suitable habitat will be realized.

RCP 4.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the Moderate Emissions (RCP 4.5) climate model scenarioRCP 8.5 SHIFTLoad DISTRIB-II + SHIFT output for the High Emissions (RCP 8.5) climate model scenario