cedar elm (Ulmus crassifolia)
Model Reliability: Medium
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.1 | 13.2 | 8074 | N/A |
| RFimp | 3.3 | 6.8 | 6618 | 0.82 |
| CCSM45 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 22180 | 3.35 |
| CCSM85 | 33.5 | 6.7 | 65608 | 9.91 |
| GFDL45 | 26.8 | 6 | 46985 | 7.1 |
| GFDL85 | 49.3 | 6.2 | 89194 | 13.48 |
| HAD45 | 38.8 | 6.6 | 74881 | 11.32 |
| HAD85 | 69.3 | 7.4 | 149991 | 22.67 |
| GCM45 | 40.2 | 4.1 | 48016 | 7.26 |
| GCM85 | 70.3 | 4.9 | 101608 | 15.35 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Cedar elm is a narrowly distributed (3.2% of area), dense, and high IV within is range concentrated in Texas. The medium reliable model shows a huge expansion of the species to the north and northeast, especially under RCP 8.5. Like other species concentrated to the southwestern portion of the study region, the future habitat expands a surprising amount to the northeast. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those new habitat locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years, though some expansion into this region has possibility. It is also of low adaptability but the large modeled increase in suitable habitat still yields an overall capability of fair (RCP 4.5) to good (RCP 8.5). SHIFT recognizes it as a decent infill species, but very little of the expansion into the new suitable habitat will be realized.
Family: Ulmaceae
Guild: opportunistic, fast-growing, intermediate tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium to large sized deciduous tree
| 3.3 | -0.27 |
| -1.17 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact cedar elm's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Primary Negative Traits
Disease