slippery elm (Ulmus rubra)
Model Reliability: Low
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 13 | 3.5 | 13200 | N/A |
| RFimp | 15.7 | 1.9 | 8877 | 0.67 |
| CCSM45 | 24.8 | 1.6 | 11967 | 1.35 |
| CCSM85 | 31.2 | 1.9 | 17567 | 1.98 |
| GFDL45 | 31.6 | 1.8 | 16998 | 1.91 |
| GFDL85 | 37.6 | 2.1 | 22680 | 2.56 |
| HAD45 | 32.1 | 2 | 18449 | 2.08 |
| HAD85 | 37.4 | 2.3 | 25212 | 2.84 |
| GCM45 | 34.8 | 1.5 | 15807 | 1.78 |
| GCM85 | 41.1 | 1.8 | 21824 | 2.46 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Slippery elm is widely distributed (14.5% of area), sparse with low IV, but somewhat common throughout much of the central portion of the eastern US. It has a low reliable model that suggests a small increase in habitat throughout its current range. SHIFT model outputs suggest expansion within its current range has some level of possibility within 100 years. It has a moderate adaptability to changing climate such that its overall capability to cope is rated as good.
Family: Ulmaceae
Guild: pioneer, spring-dispersed, moist-site tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 4.8 | 0.03 |
| 0.68 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact slippery elm's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance
Primary Negative Traits
Fire topkill Disease