Climate and Sustainability
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Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States are undergoing substantial and rapid change in response to changes in temperature and precipitation of the 21st century. Forest Service leadership has identified climate change as one of the most urgent tasks facing the Forest Service. In the Southwest, climate vulnerability assessments indicate that most of the region will be significantly impacted by current climate trends and more arid conditions, with uncharacteristic fire and other catalysts able to trigger sudden and lasting change in ecosystem conditions. Climate vulnerability, ongoing and potential impacts, and limited management capacity point to a clear need for a coherent climate adaptation strategy to address these challenges. The Forest Service is working with partners at multiple levels on coordinated efforts.
The strategy utilizes a three-category approach for climate adaptation:
- Resistance – Improving the defenses of an ecosystem against anticipated climate changes such that the system remains relatively unchanged in structure and composition.
- Resilience – Enhancing the ability of an ecosystem to return to functioning conditions after a disturbance while allowing for some change based on climate predictions. The intent is the for the system to return to a state like what it was before a disturbance yet allow for subtle changes in composition, structure, and process.
- Transition – Intentionally allow or speed the change of an ecosystem so that it is better suited to the expected conditions of the future.
Climate Adaptation Strategy
An adaptation strategy has been developed to provide guidance and a workflow to help land managers incorporate climate adaptation and set priorities in planning, and to narrow adaptation options for the consideration of project-level tactics. This strategy integrates climate adaptation options of Resilience, Resistance, and Transition as categories of management intent. While restoration may sometimes be appropriate, as with climate refugia, most circumstances of vulnerability and the optimization of ecosystem services warrant climate-smart approaches given the velocity of change in the Southwest. This strategy aims to minimize reinvention and instead rely on existing resources including: the knowledge and collaboration reflected in key adaptation strategy references and workshop outcomes; the expertise and experience of Southwest resource managers represented in Forest Plans and other land management strategy and guidance; and a synthesis of scientific research and data sources on contemporary climate trends for the Southwest.
Climate Adaptation Strategy PDF
Assessments
To evaluate the vulnerability of Southwest ecosystems to climate change, three Regional extent, all lands assessments have been completed, one focusing on upland ecosystems, another on aquatic-riparian ecosystems, and one on socio-economic factors. These efforts are part of the larger climate adaptation strategy of the Region. These three assessments are highlighted here, and a list of additional focused vulnerability assessments is available below.
Upland Ecosystems
The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) evaluates the vulnerability of the upland ecosystems of Arizona and New Mexico. Based on the anticipated effects of climate and uncharacteristic drought to site potential, the vulnerability of individual plant communities is identified by the level of future climate departure from the climate envelope for given ecosystem types. The CCVA is an ecosystems approach to predicting vulnerability based on climate projections at the year 2090. Much of the underpinning knowledge and geography of vegetation-climate relationships stems from the Terrestrial Ecological Unit Inventory of the Southwestern Region.
Read more about the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in the executive report.
Aquatic-Riparian Ecosystems
Water is a critical resource for humans and ecological systems in the western United States. Aquatic ecosystems including lakes, rivers, riparian areas and wetlands, are at high risk of climate impacts because they experience relatively high exposure to climate fluctuations and extremes. The Aquatic-Riparian Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (ARCCVA) provides an aquatic-riparian counterpart to the CCVA. The ARCCVA analyzes risk at the subwatershed-scale for all of Arizona and New Mexico along with subwatersheds in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles that intersect Forest Service lands. The assessment evaluates over two dozen intrinsic and climate-related indicators of watershed condition and riparian and aquatic habitat. Each subwatershed is assessed for current intrinsic vulnerability and for future climate-related vulnerability based upon a 2030-2059 forecast.
Socioeconomic Vulnerability Assessment
A changing climate and its effects on ecosystem services will have broad impacts, however, not all people and communities will be equally affected. The Socioeconomic Vulnerability Assessment (SEVA) is concerned with identifying communities and geographic areas where climate change-driven ecological changes have the potential to adversely affect human well-being due to changes in ecosystem services. Communities that are at greater risk of ecological changes and that lack adaptive capacity are considered more vulnerable. This effort includes quantitative and spatially based summaries on community risk, resource sector dependence, and capacity to adapt, as well as an integration of the three vulnerability components. This report extends existing vulnerability reporting focused on National Forests by assessing all lands, regardless of ownership, in Arizona and New Mexico.