sourwood (Oxydendrum arboreum)
Model Reliability: High
| GCM SCENARIO | % Area Occ | Ave IV | Sum IV | Future/Current IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 10.9 | 3.5 | 11238 | N/A |
| RFimp | 13.7 | 2.5 | 10188 | 0.91 |
| CCSM45 | 20.2 | 1.7 | 10256 | 1.01 |
| CCSM85 | 22.4 | 1.5 | 9555 | 0.94 |
| GFDL45 | 21.6 | 1.5 | 9558 | 0.94 |
| GFDL85 | 24.4 | 1.3 | 9027 | 0.89 |
| HAD45 | 16.1 | 1.4 | 6736 | 0.66 |
| HAD85 | 19 | 1.2 | 6893 | 0.68 |
| GCM45 | 23.9 | 1.3 | 8850 | 0.87 |
| GCM85 | 28.1 | 1 | 8492 | 0.83 |
Regional Summary Tree Tables
Summaries for tree species are available for a variety of geographies, in both PDF and Excel format. These summaries are based on Version 4 of the Climate Change Tree Atlas
Interpretation Guide
Sourwood is narrowly distributed (8.1% of area), common, dense, and with low IV, associated primarily with the southern Appalachian region. The highly reliable model suggests a slight decrease in suitable habitat (though still classed as 'No change' because it occupies <10% of the eastern US) but it also shows an expansion of territory to the northeast especially under RCP 8.5. However, the SHIFT model largely limits those northern locations from being naturally colonized within 100 years. It is also highly adaptable to a changing climate so that we provide an overall rating of good for the species to cope into the future.
Family: Ericaceae
Guild: persistent, slow-growing understory tolerant
Functional Lifeform: medium-size deciduous tree
| 6.9 | 2.59 |
| 0.98 |  |
MODFACs
What traits will impact sourwood's ability to adapt to climate change, and in what way?:
Primary Positive Traits
Shade tolerance Environment habitat specificity